| 王 军,陈永胜,张永辉.1972—2016年江苏省启东市前列腺癌发病率与死亡率趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2021,30(10):746-753. |
| 1972—2016年江苏省启东市前列腺癌发病率与死亡率趋势分析 |
| Analysis of Incidence and Mortality Trends for Prostate Cancer from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong County， Jiangsu Province |
| 中文关键词 修订日期：2021-07-20 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2021.10.A005 |
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| 中文关键词: 前列腺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:prostate cancer incidence mortality trend analysis Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:2020年南通市级科技计划项目（JCZ20157）；南通市卫生健康委员会2019年科研课题（QB2019025） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析启东市1972—2016年前列腺癌流行趋势。［方法］ 基于启东市1972—2016年的肿瘤登记与全死因监测数据，采用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件计算粗率、中国人口标化率（中标率）、世界人口标化率（世标率）、年度变化百分比（APC）等。利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对前列腺癌患者发病及死亡趋势的影响。［结果］ 启东市1972—2016年前列腺癌共发病1 079例，粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率分别为4.32/10万、2.71/10万和2.97/10万，35~64岁截缩率与0~74岁累积率分别为1.22/10万和0.05%；死亡625例，粗死亡率、中标死亡率和世标死亡率分别为2.50/10万、1.46/10万和1.67/10万，35~64岁截缩率与0~74岁累积率分别为0.42/10万和0.02%。55~岁、65~岁、75~岁年龄组发病率的APC分别为61.35%（95%CI：-2.16%~166.07%）、57.41%（95%CI：34.63%~84.05%）、39.57%（95%CI：7.10%~81.87%）；55~岁、65~岁、75~岁年龄组死亡率的APC分别为27.10%（95%CI：-23.59%~111.43%）、26.37%（95%CI：12.95%~41.39%）、32.78%（95%CI：-0.08%~76.47%）。45年期间前列腺癌发病趋势总体呈上升趋势，粗发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率的APC值分别为9.68%（95%CI：7.09%~12.33%）、7.10%（95%CI：5.57%~8.65%）、7.07%（95%CI：5.47%~8.68%）；粗死亡率APC为8.03%（P<0.05），中标死亡率和世标死亡率的APC分别为5.26%（95%CI：3.58%~6.97%）和5.17%（95%CI：3.47%~6.89%）。年龄-时期-队列模型研究结果显示，前列腺癌发病率和死亡率随年龄的增加而升高（P均<0.05），前列腺癌的发病率和死亡率时期效应显著（P均<0.05），而前列腺癌的发病率和死亡率队列效应不显著（P均>0.05）。 ［结论］ 启东市45年来前列腺癌发病率和死亡率上升趋势明显，且随年龄的增加逐渐上升，老年人群应是前列腺癌防治的重点对象。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of incidence and mortality prostate cancer from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong County．［Methods］ Based on the cancer registration and all-cause monitoring data of Qidong County from 1972 to 2016， crude rate(CR)， age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population in 2000(ASRC)， age-standardized rate by Segi’s world population(ASRW) and annual percentage change(APC) were analyzed by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0. Age-period-cohort model was used to investigate the contributions of age， period and cohort effects on the trends of incidence and mortality. ［Results］ A total of 1 079 new cases of prostate cancer were reported in Qidong during 1972 to 2016. The crude incidence rate， ASRC and ASRW of incidence were 4.32/105， 2.71/105 and 2.97/105， respectively. Truncated incidence rate of 35~64 years old and cumulative incidence rate of 0~74 years old were 1.22/105 and 0.05%. A total of 625 deaths of prostate cancer were reported in Qidong during 1972 to 2016. The crude mortality rate， ASRC and ASRW of mortality were 2.50/105， 1.46/105 and 1.67/105， respectively. Truncated mortality rate of 35~64 years old and cumulative mortality rate of 0~74 years old were 0.42/105 and 0.02%. The APC of incidence in 55~ years old， 65~ years old and 75~ years old groups were 61.35%(95%CI：-2.16%~166.07%)， 57.41%(95% CI：34.63%~84.05%) and 39.57%(95%CI：7.10%~81.87%). The APC of mortality in 55~ years old， 65~ years old and 75~ years old groups were 27.10%(95%CI：-23.59%~111.43%)， 26.37%(95%CI：12.95%~41.39%) and 32.78%(95%CI：-0.08%~76.47%). In the past of 45 years， incidence of prostate cancer in Qidong showed an upward trend. The APC of crude incidence rate， ASRC and ASRW of incidence were 9.68%(95%CI：7.09%~12.33%)， 7.10%(95%CI：5.57%~8.65%)， 7.07%(95%CI：5.47%~8.68%). The crude mortality rate increased by 8.03% per year with P<0.05. The APC of ASRC and ASRW of mortality were 5.26%(95%CI：3.58%~6.97%) and 5.17%(95%CI：3.47%~6.89%). Age-period-cohort analysis showed that incidence and mortality of prostate cancer gradually increased with age(P<0.05). The period effect showed a certain effect on the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer(P<0.05)， while cohort effect had no significant effect on the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer(P>0.05). ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Qidong have remarkably increased with age for the past 45 years. More attention should be paid to the elderly people for prevention and treatment of prostate cancer. |
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