| 梁 巍,宋冰冰,杨 超.1987—2017年哈尔滨市肺癌死亡趋势及去死因期望寿命分析[J].中国肿瘤,2020,29(9):689-694. |
| 1987—2017年哈尔滨市肺癌死亡趋势及去死因期望寿命分析 |
| Analysis of Trend on Mortality of Lung Cancer and Cause-Eliminated Life Expectancy from 1987 to 2017 in Harbin |
| 中文关键词 修订日期：2019-10-30 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2020.09.A009 |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 死亡趋势 去死因期望寿命 黑龙江 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer mortality trend cause eliminated life expectancy Heilongjiang |
| 基金项目:黑龙江省卫生健康委科研课题（2019-240） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］分析哈尔滨市居民肺癌死亡率的时间变化趋势及去死因期望寿命，为肺癌防控提供科学依据。［方法］分析1987—2017年哈尔滨市肺癌死亡率数据，利用Joinpoint模型计算肺癌死亡率的时间变化趋势，运用简略寿命表和去死因寿命表计算期望寿命及去死因期望寿命。［结果］1987—2017年哈尔滨市居民肺癌死亡粗率为51.45/10万、中标率40.91/10万、世标率41.00/10万、截缩率49.11/10万，肺癌死亡粗率呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.3%，95%CI：1.4%~3.1%）。其中男、女性肺癌死亡粗率均呈上升趋势(男：AAPC=2.1%，95%CI：1.2%~2.9%；女：AAPC=2.3%，95%CI：1.5%~3.0%)，肺癌中标率无明显变化趋势（AAPC=-0.5%，95%CI：-2.4%~1.4%），35~64岁截缩死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.2%，95%CI：-1.5%~-0.9%）。1987—2017年哈尔滨市人群期望寿命呈逐年上升趋势（AAPC=0.3%，95%CI：0.1%~0.4%），平均期望寿命为76.14岁，去除肺癌影响人群期望寿命平均可提高0.92岁，由于肺癌所造成的寿命损失从1987年的0.69年上升为2017年的1.07年，上升趋势有统计学意义（AAPC=1.4%，95%CI：0.9%~2.0%）；全死因构成比（AAPC=1.3%，95%CI：0.9%~1.8%）和肺癌占全部恶性肿瘤比例（AAPC=0.6%，95%CI：0.4%~0.7%）均呈上升趋势。［结论］哈尔滨市肺癌死亡率高，疾病负担日益加重，肺癌对于期望寿命影响显著，应加强防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the time trend of lung cancer deaths and cause-eliminated life expectancy of residents from 1987 to 2017 in Harbin，and to provide scientific evidence for cancer prevention and control.［Methods］ Mortality data of lung cancer of residents from 1987 to 2017 in Harbin was analyzed． Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in mortality of lung cancer，life table and cause-eliminated life table were applied to calculate life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy.［Results］ From 1987 to 2017，the crude mortality of lung cancer was 51.45/105，the age-standardized mortality rates by Chinese standard population and by worldstandard population were 40.91/105 and 41.00/105，respectively；the truncated rate(35~64) was 49.11/105 in Harbin. The crude mortality of lung cancer showed an obvious increasing trend(AAPC=2.3%，95%CI：1.4%~3.1%).There were significant increasing trends for both male(AAPC=2.1%，95%CI：1.2%~2.9%) and female(AAPC=2.3%，95%CI：1.5%~3.0%). No significant variation in the age-standardized mortality rate was observed(AAPC=-0.5%，95%CI：-2.4%~1.4%)，but an obvious decreasing trend in the truncated rate(35~64 years) was observed(AAPC=-1.2%，95%CI：-1.5%~-0.9%). The life expectancy of residents in Harbin kept rising during 1987—2017（AAPC=0.3%，95%CI：0.1%~0.4%），with an average life expectancy of 76.14 years. After eliminating the causes of death of lung cancer，the life expectancy increased 0.92 years. During 1987—2017，arising trend year by year was observed for the potential years of life loss casused by lung cancer which was 0.69 years in 1987 to 1.07 years in 2017 with statistical significance（AAPC=1.4%，95%CI：0.9%~2.0%）.The significant increasing trends were found in the proportion of all cause deaths（AAPC=1.3%，95%CI：0.9%~1.8%） and all malignant cancer death of lung cancer（AAPC=0.6%，95%CI：0.4%~0.7%).［Conclusion］ The mortality of lung cancer of residents in Harbin was high and the burden of disease has become heavier. Lung cancer has a significant impact on life expectancy，so prevention and control should be strengthened. |
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