| 郑文龙,张 爽,沈成凤.天津市2010～2014年甲状腺癌流行特征及长期发病和死亡趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2018,27(9):670-674. |
| 天津市2010～2014年甲状腺癌流行特征及长期发病和死亡趋势分析 |
| Epidemiological Characteristics and Long-term Trends of Thyroid Cancer in Tianjin |
| 投稿时间：2018-03-28 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2018.09.A006 |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺癌 发病率 病因 流行病学 天津 |
| 英文关键词:thyroid cancer incidence etiology epidemiology Tianjin |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1888 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析天津市甲状腺癌的流行趋势和特征。［方法］ 计算2010～2014年天津市甲状腺癌的发病率、标化发病率、累积率（0～74岁）以及截缩率（35～64岁），应用Joinpoint回归分析甲状腺癌发病（1981～2011年）和死亡（1999～2016年）的趋势和年度变化百分比（APC）。 ［结果］ 天津市2010～2014年共报告甲状腺癌新发病例7369例，粗发病率为14.77/10万（男性7.15/10万，女性22.44/10万），标化发病率男女性别比为1∶3.17。年龄组发病曲线呈单峰分布，45～54岁达到高峰之后逐渐下降；各区县甲状腺癌发病率依据地理位置呈现明显的南高北低的趋势，最高地区的发病率（36.91/10万）是最低地区（4.02/10万）的9.18倍。1981～2011年天津甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，APC=5.7%，P<0.01，2010～2014年增长迅速，APC=43.58%，P<0.01；1999～2016年甲状腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势，APC=3.4%，P<0.01，0～74岁累积死亡率无显著性变化。［结论］ 2010～2014年天津市甲状腺癌发病率增长迅速，但甲状腺癌的0～74岁累积死亡率18年间无显著性变化，过度体检筛查可能是发病率快速增长的主要原因。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends of thyroid cancer in Tianjin. ［Methods］ The incidence rate，standardized incidence rate，cumulative rate(0～74 years) and truncated rate(35～64 years ) of thyroid cancer in Tianjin from 2010 to 2014 were calculated using the tumor registration data，and the annual percentage change (APC) of the incidence（1981～2011）and mortality（1999～2016） were analyzed by Joinpoint regression. ［Results］ A total 7369 new cases of thyroid cancer were reported in Tianjin from 2010 to 2014，the crude incidence rate was 14.77/105(7.15/105 for males，22.44/105 for females). The ratio of male to female of standardized incidence rate was 1∶3.17. The incidence curve of the age groups showed a single peak at 45～54 years，it was gradually decreased afterwards. The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the north parts of the city was significantly lower than that in the south；the incidence in southernmost district was 9.18 times higher than that in the northernmost district (36.91/105 vs 4.02/105). The incidence of thyroid cancer in Tianjin was increasing from 1981 to 2011(APC=5.7%，P<0.01）；and it increased faster from 2010 to 2014 (APC=43.58%，P<0.01). The mortality of thyroid cancer in Tianjin was increasing from 1999 to 2016 (APC=3.4%，P<0.01)，but the cumulative rate (0～74 years) from 1999 to 2016 did not show significant changes. ［Conclusion］ The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in Tianjin has increased rapidly since 1981，particularly during 2010～2014. The cumulative mortality rate(0～74 years) shows no significant changes during a period of 18 years. Excessive screening may be the main reason for the rapid increase in incidence of thyroid cancer in Tianjin. |
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