| 杨坚波.江苏省无锡市2008～2015年结直肠癌死亡分析及趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2017,26(2):96-100. |
| 江苏省无锡市2008～2015年结直肠癌死亡分析及趋势预测 |
| Mortality and Trend Prediction of Colorectal Cancer in Wuxi City， 2008～2015 |
| 投稿时间：2016-06-06 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2017.02.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 结直肠癌 死亡率 年度变化百分比 潜在寿命损失年数 灰色动态模型GM（1，1） |
| 英文关键词:colorectal cancer mortality annual percent change potential years of life lost grey dynamic model（1,1） |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 2083 |
| 全文下载次数: 680 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析无锡市结直肠癌的死亡现状及流行规律，为科学制订防控决策提供依据。［方法］ 对无锡市2008～2015年结直肠癌的死亡资料进行分析，计算死亡率、年度变化百分比（APC）和潜在寿命损失，并采用灰色动态模型GM（1，1）进行预测。［结果］ 8年来结直肠癌的死亡率呈逐年上升趋势（APC=6.93%，95%CI：5.89～7.98，P＜0.001），平均死亡率为15.58/10万（标化死亡率8.41/10万），男性高于女性（17.05/10万 vs 14.12/10万）。死亡主要发生在40～岁以上人群，随着年龄的上升死亡率持续升高，因结直肠癌死亡共减寿29 005.0人年。预测未来5年，结直肠癌的死亡率仍呈上升趋势，至2020年将达到27.92/10万。［结论］ 结直肠癌作为危害日益严重的恶性肿瘤，已成为影响无锡市居民健康的重要疾病之一，对其开展相应的筛查和防治工作势在必行。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the mortality and prevalence of colorectal cancer in Wuxi city in order to provide the basis for the scientific formulation of prevention and control.［Methods］ The mortality data of colorectal cancer in Wuxi city from 2008 to 2015 were analyzed to calculate mortality，annual percent change（APC），potential years of life lost and the grey dynamic model（1，1） was used to predict.［Results］ The mortality of colorectal cancer increased year by year in 8 years（APC=6.93%，95%CI：5.89～7.98，P＜0.001）. Average mortality rate was 15.58/105（standardized mortality rate was 8.41/105），male mortality rate was higher than female（17.05/105 vs 14.12/105）. The mortality occurred mainly in the population aged 40 years old and above and increased with age. It lost 29 005.0 person years due to the death of colorectal cancer. In the next 5 years，the mortality rate of colorectal cancer will still be an increasing trend and reach 27.92/105 in 2020.［Conclusions］ Colorectal cancer as a malignant tumor which is harmful to the growing have become one of the important diseases affecting the health of the residents in Wuxi city. It is necessary to carry out the corresponding screening and prevention work． |
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