| 金泽彬,张梦忍,田 敏,等.浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌2021年流行特征及2000—2021年趋势分析[J].肿瘤学杂志,2026,32(9):715-723. |
| 浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌2021年流行特征及2000—2021年趋势分析 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Esophageal Cancer in 2021 and Trends from 2000 to 2021 in Zhejiang Province Cancer Registration Areas |
| 投稿时间：2026-07-17 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2026.09.B002 |
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| 中文关键词: 食管肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 肿瘤登记 浙江 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal neoplasms incidence mortality trend analysis cancer registration Zhejiang |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌2021年流行特征及2000—2021年长期变化趋势。［方法］ 收集并整理2000—2021年浙江省肿瘤登记处的监测数据，提取食管癌发病和死亡数据，计算食管癌粗发病率、粗死亡率、采用SAS（V9.4）软件计算标化发病率与标化死亡率。采用Joinpoint软件计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。［结果］ 2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌粗发病率11.22/10万，中标发病率为4.88/10万，世标发病率为4.97/10万；发病特征为男性高于女性、农村高于城市，发病率随年龄升高显著上升，65岁及以上人群发病水平最高。2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌粗死亡率为8.48/10万，中标死亡率为3.48/10万，世标死亡率为3.54/10万；死亡分布特征与发病一致，男性、农村、老年人群死亡风险较高。 2000—2021年食管癌粗发病率呈显著性上升趋势（AAPC=0.98%，95%CI：0.21%~1.83%，P=0.024） ；中标发病率呈显著性下降趋势（AAPC=-1.53%，95%CI：-2.38%~-0.59%，P=0.009），世标发病率呈显著性下降趋势（AAPC=-1.48%，95%CI：-2.38%~-0.47%，P=0.016）。2000—2021年食管癌粗死亡率无显著性变化（AAPC=-0.08%，95%CI：-0.61%~0.96%，P=0.817），但中标死亡率呈显著性下降趋势（AAPC=-2.03%，95%CI：-2.57%~ -1.47%，P＜0.001）；世标死亡率也呈显著性下降趋势（AAPC=-1.93%，95%CI：-2.52%~ -1.32%，P＜0.001）。分层趋势显示：女性、15~44岁人群、农村地区食管癌发病、死亡指标的AAPC下降幅度分别高于男性、45岁及以上人群、城市地区。［结论］ 2000—2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病率和死亡率整体呈下降趋势。 男性、农村居民及老年人群体为食管癌防控的重点人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Objective］ To investigate the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Zhejiang Province cancer registration areas in 2021 and their trends from 2000 to 2021. ［Methods］ Surveillance data on esophageal cancer new cases and deaths from 2000 to 2021 were collected from the Zhejiang Province Cancer Registry. Crude incidence and mortality were calculated， and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC/ASMRC) and by world standard population (ASIRW/ASMRW) were computed using SAS 9.4. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). ［Results］ In 2021， the crude incidence was 11.22/105， with an ASIRC of 4.88/105 and an ASIRW of 4.97/105. Incidence was higher in males than in females， higher in rural areas than in urban areas， and increased markedly with age， peaking in those aged ≥65 years old. The crude mortality rate was 8.48/105， with an ASMRC of 3.48/105 and an ASMRW of 3.54/105， showing a similar distribution pattern. From 2000 to 2021， the crude incidence showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=0.98%， 95%CI： 0.21%-1.83%， P=0.024)， whereas both ASIRC (AAPC=-1.53%， 95%CI：-2.38%--0.59%， P=0.009) and ASIRW (AAPC=-1.48%， 95%CI：-2.38%--0.47%， P=0.016) declined significantly. The crude mortality did not change significantly (AAPC=-0.08%， 95%CI：-0.61%-0.96%， P=0.817)， but the ASMRC (AAPC=-2.03%， 95%CI：-2.57%--1.47%， P<0.001) and ASMRW (AAPC=-1.93%， 95%CI：-2.52%--1.32%， P<0.001) decreased significantly. Stratified analyses showed greater declines in females， the 15-44 years old age group， and rural residents compared with males， those aged ≥45 years old， and urban residents， respectively. ［Conclusion］ The overall incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Zhejiang Province cancer registration areas showed declining trends from 2000 to 2021. Males， rural residents， and the elderly should be prioritized as key target groups for prevention and control efforts. |
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