| 邱玉保,张新楠,杨冰沫,等.2018—2023年江苏省宿迁市结直肠癌发病与死亡分析及2024—2026年变化趋势预测[J].肿瘤学杂志,2026,32(8):692-698. |
| 2018—2023年江苏省宿迁市结直肠癌发病与死亡分析及2024—2026年变化趋势预测 |
| Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Suqian City of Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2023 and Prediction from 2024 to 2026 |
| 投稿时间：2025-10-30 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2026.08.B008 |
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| 中文关键词: 结直肠肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:colorectal neoplasms incidence mortality trend analysis Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:宿迁市指导性科技计划项目（Z2022083，Z202382） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2018—2023年江苏省宿迁市结直肠癌发病和死亡情况并预测2024—2026年变化趋势。［方法］ 通过江苏省慢性病管理信息平台收集2018—2023年宿迁市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡资料，利用Excel和R 4.5计算结直肠癌发病（死亡）率、中标发病（死亡）率、世标发病（死亡）率、累积率（0~74岁），采用JoinPoint 4.8软件计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change ，AAPC），利用R4.5构建灰色模型GM（1，1）预测2024—2026年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率和死亡率。［结果］ 2018—2023年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率为19.06/10万，中标发病率为12.00/10万，死亡率为8.73/10万，中标死亡率为4.94/10万。发病率和死亡率在45岁之前都保持较低水平，45岁之后则随着年龄增长迅速上升。2018—2023年，宿迁市全人群、男性和女性的结直肠癌发病率AAPC分别为7.52%、7.83%和7.07%，均呈上升趋势（P均<0.05）。同期，宿迁市全人群、男性和女性的结直肠癌死亡率AAPC分别为9.36%、9.97%和8.43%，也均呈上升趋势（P均<0.05）。GM（1，1）预测结果显示，2024—2026年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。［结论］ 2018—2023年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势，2024—2026年结直肠发病与死亡负担将进一步加重，应重视并加强结直肠癌的防治工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Objective］ To analyze the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Suqian City of Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2023， and to predict the trends during 2024—2026. ［Methods］ Data on the incidence and mortality of malignant tumor in Suqian City from 2018 to 2023 were collected through the Jiangsu Provincial Chronic Disease Management Information Platform. Excel and R 4.5 were used to calculate the crude incidence /mortality rate， age-standardized incidence/mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC/ASMRC)， age-standardized incidence/mortality rate by world standard population(ASIRW/ASMRW)， and cumulative rate for ages 0~74 years of colorectal cancer. JoinPoint 4.8 software was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). A grey model GM(1， 1) was built using R4.5 to predict the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Suqian City from 2024 to 2026. ［Results］ From 2018 to 2023， the crude incidence of colorectal cancer in Suqian City was 19.06/105， ASIRC was 12.00/105， the crude mortality rate was 8.73/105， and ASMRC was 4.94/105. Both incidence and mortality rates remained low before the age of 45 but increased rapidly thereafter. From 2018 to 2023， the AAPCs of colorectal cancer incidence in the total population， males， and females in Suqian City were 7.52%， 7.83%， and 7.07%， respectively， all showing an upward trend (all P<0.05). The corresponding AAPCs for mortality were 9.36%， 9.97%， and 8.43%， also showing an upward trend (all P<0.05). The prediction results of the GM(1， 1) model indicated that the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Suqian City would continue to rise from 2024 to 2026. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Suqian City increased form 2018 to 2023， and the burden is projected to rise from 2024 to 2026. Greater emphasis should be placed on strengthening the prevention and control of colorectal cancer. |
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