| 张 敏,万秋萍,王云徽,等.2002—2021年上海市静安区胃癌发病和死亡流行特征分析[J].肿瘤学杂志,2026,32(4):314-324. |
| 2002—2021年上海市静安区胃癌发病和死亡流行特征分析 |
| Analysis of Epidemic Characteristics of Incidence and Mortality of Gastric Cancer in Jing’an District， Shanghai from 2002 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-21 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2026.04.B007 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 胃肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列模型 上海 |
| 英文关键词:gastric neoplasms incidence mortality age-period-cohort model Shanghai |
| 基金项目:静安区加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划（2023—2025年）区级项目（JAGW2023107）；2024年度上海市公共卫生研究专项（2024GKM14）；2025年静安区“十百千”人才项目（2025SBX-GG06）；上海市静安区医学科研课题（公共卫生2023GW01） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 9 |
| 全文下载次数: 6 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析上海市静安区2002—2021年胃癌的发病和死亡流行特征，为制定更精准的胃癌防控策略提供基础数据和循证依据。［方法］ 根据静安区胃癌发病率和死亡率情况结合相应年份人口学资料，分别计算胃癌发病率、死亡率及世界人口标化率（世标率）。运用Joinpoint模型计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）及平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），分析胃癌发病率、死亡率变化趋势，运用年龄-时期-队列模型，分析年龄、时期和出生队列对发病率和死亡率的影响。［结果］ 2002—2021年，静安区胃癌世标发病率从22.86/10万下降至的13.28/10万（AAPC=-2.35%，P<0.01），世标死亡率从16.45/10万下降至7.88/10万（AAPC=-3.52%，P<0.01）。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示，胃癌发病率净漂移值为-2.52%，局部漂移值在40~49岁和65~84岁年龄段均小于-2.00%，其中40~44岁年龄组达到-6.01%。胃癌发病率在60岁后快速上升，至75~79岁年龄组达到峰值（123.86/10万），男性也在75~79岁年龄组达到峰值（199.49/10万），女性在80~84岁年龄组达到峰值（57.39/10万）。不同时期的胃癌发病风险呈下降趋势，出生越晚发病风险越低。胃癌死亡率净漂移值为-2.92%。局部漂移值在45~84岁年龄段均小于-2.00%，其中75~79岁年龄组达到-4.40%。胃癌死亡率在60岁后快速上升，80~84岁年龄组达到峰值（78.41/10万），男性和女性也均在80~84岁年龄组达到峰值（132.98/10万、31.49/10万）。不同时期的胃癌死亡风险呈下降趋势，出生越晚死亡风险越低。 ［结论］ 上海市静安区胃癌发病率和死亡率均呈下降趋势，年龄、时期和出生队列均是胃癌发病率和死亡率的影响因素，50~64岁年龄段男性和50~59岁年龄段女性人群是胃癌防治主体。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Objective］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in Jing’an District， Shanghai from 2002 to 2021， and to provide fundamental data and evidence-based support for developing more precise prevention and control strategies for gastric cancer. ［Methods］ Based on the incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in Jing’an District combined with demographic data from corresponding years， the incidence rate， mortality rate， and age-standardized incidence/mortality rate by world standard population (ASIRW/ASMRW) were respectively calculated. The Joinpoint model was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to analyze the trends in incidence and mortality rates. Additionally， the age-period-cohort model was used to examine the effects of age， period， and birth cohort on incidence and mortality rates. ［Results］ From 2002 to 2021， the ASIRW of gastric cancer in Jing’an District decreased from 22.86/105 to 13.28/105 (AAPC=-2.35%， P<0.01)， and the ASMRW decreased from 16.45/105 to 7.88/105 (AAPC=-3.52%， P<0.01). Results of the age-period-cohort modeling showed that the net drift of gastric cancer incidence rate value was -2.52%， with localized drift values of less than -2.00% at both age groups of 40~49 and 65~84 years old， with -6.01% reached at 40~44 years old， and the incidence rate increased rapidly after 60 years old， peaking at 75~79 years old (123.86/105)， also peaked at 75~79 years old for male (199.49/105) and 80~84 years old for female (57.39/105). The risk of gastric cancer incidence in different periods showed a decreasing trend， and the later the birth， the lower the risk of incidence. The net drift value of gastric cancer mortality was -2.92%， and the localized drift values were all less than -2.00% at age group of 45~84 years old， with 75~79 years old reaching -4.40%. The mortality rate increased rapidly after 60 years old， peaking at 80~84 years old(78.41/105)， for both male and female also peaked at 80~84 years old (132.98/105 and 31.49/105). The risk of gastric cancer mortality in different periods showed a decreasing trend， and the later the birth， the lower the risk of mortality. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in Jing’an District showed a downward trend. Age， period， and birth cohort were the influencing factors of the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer. The male aged 50~64 years old and female aged 50~59 years old are the main groups for the prevention and treatment of gastric cancer. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |