| 秦永发,卢 莹,赵 佳,等.2010—2021年上海市杨浦区恶性肿瘤死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响[J].肿瘤学杂志,2026,32(3):242-249. |
| 2010—2021年上海市杨浦区恶性肿瘤死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响 |
| Trends in Malignant Tumor Mortality and Its Impact on Life Expectancy in Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2010 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-06-22 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2026.03.B009 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 时间趋势 期望寿命 死亡谱 上海 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor mortality temporal trend life expectancy death spectrum Shanghai |
| 基金项目:2024年度杨浦区科技和经济委员会杨浦区卫生健康委员会科研项目（YPGWQ202404） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2010—2021年上海市杨浦区居民恶性肿瘤死亡趋势及死亡谱变化，探讨恶性肿瘤死亡对期望寿命的影响。［方法］ 基于杨浦区2010—2021年户籍居民死因监测数据，计算恶性肿瘤死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命（cause-eliminated life expectancy，CELE）等指标的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。［结果］ 2010—2021年杨浦区共35 122人死于恶性肿瘤。全人群恶性肿瘤粗死亡率从2010年的242.99/10万上升至2021年的291.80/10万（AAPC=1.77%，P＜0.05），中国人口标化死亡率从185.46/10万下降至152.80/10万（AAPC=-1.68%，P＜0.05）。男性、女性粗死亡率均上升，中国人口标化死亡率均下降，男性死亡率始终高于女性。全人群、男女性恶性肿瘤死亡率均随年龄增长而上升。人群期望寿命呈上升趋势（AAPC=0.24%，P=0.001），2021年较2010年增加1.98岁。恶性肿瘤CELE呈上升趋势（AAPC=0.23%，P=0.001），而CELE增长率和寿命损失率变化趋势均无统计学意义（均P＞0.05）。恶性肿瘤死亡谱发生显著变化。泌尿系统肿瘤（前列腺癌、膀胱癌）和部分消化道肿瘤（结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌）死亡负担上升。肝癌、脑恶性肿瘤等死亡负担呈下降趋势。肺癌始终是人群首位死因且死亡率持续增长。［结论］ 2010—2021年杨浦区恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势，而中国人口标化死亡率呈下降趋势。恶性肿瘤死亡率、死亡谱及对期望寿命的影响均存在性别差异。男性是重点人群，肺癌、泌尿系统及消化道恶性肿瘤是防控重点。应根据恶性肿瘤性别差异和人群死亡谱变化特点制定更具针对性的肿瘤防控策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Objective］ To analyze the trends in malignant tumor mortality， changes in the mortality spectrum， and the impact on life expectancy among residents of Yangpu District， Shanghai from 2010 to 2021. ［Methods］ Based on mortality surveillance data of registered residents in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021， we calculated the crude mortality rate， age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC)， life expectancy， cause-eliminated life expectancy (CELE)， and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of these indicators. ［Results］ From 2010 to 2021， a total of 35 122 individuals died from malignant tumors in Yangpu District， including 21 258 males (60.53%). The crude mortality rate for malignant tumors in the total population increased from 242.99/105 in 2010 to 291.80/105 in 2021 (AAPC=1.77%， P<0.05)， while the ASMRC decreased from 185.46/105 to 152.80/105 (AAPC=-1.68%， P<0.05). The crude mortality rate increased in both male and female， while the ASMRC decreased in both genders， with males consistently showing higher mortality than females. Malignant tumor mortality increased with age in the total population and in both genders. Life expectancy showed an upward trend (AAPC=0.24%， P=0.001)， increasing by 1.98 years in 2021 compared with 2010. The CELE for malignant tumors also increased (AAPC=0.23%， P=0.001)， while the trends in potential gains in life expectancy and the life loss rate were not statistically significant (both P>0.05). The mortality spectrum of malignant tumors changed significantly. The mortality burden of urinary system tumors (prostate cancer， bladder cancer) and some digestive tract tumors (colon cancer， rectal cancer， pancreatic cancer) increased. In contrast， the mortality burden of liver cancer and brain malignancies decreased. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of death， with its mortality rate continuously increasing. ［Conclusion］ From 2010 to 2021， the crude mortality of malignant tumors in Yangpu District showed an increasing trend， while the ASMRC exhibited a declining trend. Differences in mortality， the mortality spectrum， and the impact on life expectancy were observed between genders. Males represent a key target population， and lung cancer， urinary system tumors， and digestive tract malignancies should be prioritized for prevention and control. Targeted cancer control strategies should be developed based on gender differences and changes in the mortality spectrum. |
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