| 董建梅,李伟伟,马昭君,等.2008—2020年江苏省连云港市甲状腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化特征[J].肿瘤学杂志,2026,32(2):156-163. |
| 2008—2020年江苏省连云港市甲状腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化特征 |
| Trends of Incidence and Age at Onset of Thyroid Cancer in Lianyungang City of Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-08 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2026.02.B010 |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺肿瘤 发病率 发病年龄 趋势分析 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:thyroid neoplasms incidence age at onset trend analysis Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:江苏省卫生计生委预防医学科研课题（Y2015030） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2008—2020年江苏省连云港市甲状腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况。［方法］ 根据连云港市恶性肿瘤登记系统收集的恶性肿瘤发病资料，选取2008—2020年甲状腺癌发病数据，计算各年度甲状腺癌发病率、中国人口标化发病率（中标率）、不同年龄组发病率、平均发病年龄及平均标化发病年龄等指标，计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）并分析变化趋势。利用线性回归模型分析平均发病年龄与年份之间的相关性。通过构建出生队列模型，分析2008—2020年出生人群甲状腺癌发病率及其发病趋势。［结果］ 2008—2020年连云港市总体、男性、女性、城市地区、农村地区甲状腺癌的粗发病率和中标率均呈现上升趋势（粗发病率AAPC 分别为16.29%、14.52%、16.83%、14.39%、17.22%，中标率AAPC分别为16.22%、14.43%、16.53%、14.88%、16.98%）（P均<0.001）。女性各年龄组、总体和男性（除外70~79岁）的其他6个年龄组甲状腺癌发病率均随时间发展呈现上升趋势（P均<0.05），其中30~39岁年龄组发病率每年上升幅度最大（P<0.05）。2008—2020年连云港市总体、男性、女性和城市地区的甲状腺癌平均发病年龄、平均标化发病年龄均呈现下降趋势（P均<0.05）。相同年龄组出生年份不同的人群，随着出生年份增加甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势。2008—2020年连云港市女性甲状腺癌发病率高于男性，城市地区甲状腺癌发病率高于农村地区。［结论］ 2008—2020年连云港市甲状腺发病率呈现上升趋势，平均发病年龄呈现下降趋势。城市地区及30岁以上女性人群为甲状腺癌的防控重点。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Objective］ To investigate the trends of incidence and the age at onset of thyroid cancer in Lianyungang City of Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2020. ［Methods］ The data of diagnosed thyroid cancer cases from 2008 to 2020 were collected from Lianyungang cancer registry system. The crude incidence rate(CR)，the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)， the incidence of different age groups， crude and standardized average age at onset of thyroid cancer were calculated by sex and regions. The average annual percent change(AAPC) was calculated for analyzing the trend of the indicators. The linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between average age at onset and the years. A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze the trends of thyroid cancer incidence among people born from 2008 to 2020. ［Results］ In Lianyungang City， the crude incidence and ASIRC of thyroid cancer among the whole population， males， females， urban and rural areas all showed upward trends from 2008 to 2020 with an AAPC of 16.29%，14.52%，16.83%，14.39%，17.22% for crude incidence and 16.22%， 14.43%， 16.53%， 14.88%， 16.98% for ASIRC， respectively (all P<0.001). The incidence of thyroid cancer in all age groups of the females， and the all age groups， except 70~79 years old， of the whole population and males showed upward trends with time(P<0.05). And the incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the age group of 30~39 years old increased the most annually(P<0.05). The crude and standardized average age at onset among whole population， males， females and urban areas all showed downward trends from 2008 to 2020(P<0.05). The incidence of thyroid cancer in the same age group of people showed an upward trend with the increase of year of birth. And the incidence of thyroid cancer among the females was higher than that of the males from 2008 to 2020. The incidence of thyroid cancer in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of thyroid cancer shows an increasing trend from 2008 to 2020 in Lianyungang City， while the average age at onset shows a downward trend during the same period. The urban residents and women over 30 years old should be the key target population for thyroid cancer prevention and control. |
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