| 朱 颖,郑 添,费兴林,等.2013—2023年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势分析[J].肿瘤学杂志,2025,31(6):541-547. |
| 2013—2023年浙江省嘉善县恶性肿瘤死亡率变化趋势分析 |
| Trends of Cancer Mortality in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-03-21 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2025.06.B010 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 死亡 死亡数分解法 变化趋势 浙江 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor mortality method of decomposing the number of deaths changing trend Zhejiang |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2013—2023年嘉善县恶性肿瘤死亡情况及死亡率变化趋势。 ［方法］ 数据来源于嘉善县死因登记系统。计算2013—2023年的嘉善县恶性肿瘤分年龄、性别、癌种粗死亡率和中标死亡率，计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）分析时间趋势，用死亡数分解法分析死亡数变化贡献情况。［结果］ 嘉善县2013—2023年恶性肿瘤死亡10 860例，粗死亡率247.46/10万。恶性肿瘤中标死亡率呈下降趋势（APC=-3.27%，P<0.001），粗死亡率未见明显变化（P>0.05）。男性15~34、35~64、65岁及以上与女性35~64、65岁及以上年龄组恶性肿瘤中标死亡率均呈下降趋势（P<0.05），其余年龄组未见明显变化趋势（P>0.05）。恶性肿瘤死亡前5位依次为肺癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胃癌、胰腺癌，占恶性肿瘤死亡的66.22%，不同性别的死因顺位相似。0~14岁和15~34岁年龄组恶性肿瘤死亡率最高的是脑和中枢神经系统肿瘤（1.04/10万，1.03/10万），35~64岁和65岁及以上年龄组死亡率最高的是肺癌（26.26/10万，264.90/10万）。2013—2023年全人群肺癌、结直肠癌、胃癌粗死亡率未见明显变化（P>0.05），中标死亡率均呈下降趋势（P<0.05）；肝癌的中标死亡率与粗死亡率均呈下降趋势（APC=-5.74%，P<0.05；APC=-2.56%，P<0.05）；胰腺癌全人群粗死亡率呈上升趋势（APC=2.53%，P<0.05），中标死亡率未见明显变化趋势（P>0.05）。恶性肿瘤死亡数增长因人口增长贡献9.74%，人口老龄化贡献32.47%，而年龄别死亡率下降则起制约作用（-36.05%）；胃癌、结直肠癌、肝癌、肺癌与全人群相似；胰腺癌中人口增长、人口老龄化、年龄别死亡率增加对死亡数上升有促进作用。［结论］ 嘉善县2013—2023年死亡主要癌种是肺癌和消化系统肿瘤，恶性肿瘤中标死亡率下降，胰腺癌死亡率上升，人口增长和老龄化导致死亡数增加。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Objective］ To analysis the trend of cancer mortality in Jiashan County of Zhejiang Province from 2013 to 2023. ［Methods］ The cancer mortality datas were obtained from the cause-of-death registration system in Jiashan County. The crude mortality rates by age， sex and cancer type were calculated， and the annual percentage change (APC) was calculated to analyze the time trend. The contribution to the change in the number of deaths was analyzed using the death number decomposition method. ［Results］ From 2013 to 2023 in Jiashan County， there were 10 860 deaths due to cancers， with a crude mortality rate of 247.46/105. The age-standardi-zed mortality rate (ASMR) of malignant tumors showed a downward trend (APC= -3.27%， P<0.001)， while there was no significant change in the crude mortality rate (P>0.05). The ASMR of cancers in the age groups of 15~34 years old， 35~64 years old and ≥65 years old for males， and 35~64 years old and ≥65 years old for females showed a downward trend (P<0.05)， and there was no significant change in the remaining age groups (P>0.05). The top 5 causes of cancer deaths were lung cancer， liver cancer， colorectal cancer， gastric cancer and pancreatic cancer， accounting for 66.22% of all cancer deaths， and the ranking was similar in males and females. For the age groups of 0~14 years old and 15~34 years old， the highest cancer mortality was for tumors in brain and central nervous system (1.04/105 and 1.03/105， respectively)， and for the age groups of 35~64 years old and ≥65 years old， the highest mortality rate was for lung cancer (26.26/105 and 264.90/105， respectively). From 2013 to 2023， there was no significant change in the crude mortality rates of lung cancer， colorectal cancer and gastric cancer in the whole population (P>0.05)， while the ASMR of above cancers showed a downward trend (P<0.05). Both the ASMR and the crude mortality rate of liver cancer showed a downward trend (APC=-5.74%， P<0.05； APC=-2.56%， P<0.05). The crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in the whole population showed an upward trend (APC=2.53%， P<0.05)， and there was no significant change in the ASMR (P>0.05). The contribution of increase in the number of cancer deaths by population growth accounted for 9.74%， by population aging accounted for 32.47%， and by decreased age-specific mortality rate accounted for 36.05%. The causes of increased cancer deaths for gastric cancer， colorectal cancer， liver cancer and lung cancer were similar to those in the whole population. The increase in the number of deaths due to pancreatic cancer was due to population growth， population aging and the increase in age-specific mortality rate. ［Conclusion］ From 2013 to 2023 in Jiashan County， the main cancer types causing death were lung cancer and digestive system cancers. The ASMR of all cancers decreased except for pancreatic cancer. Population growth and aging led to an increase in the number of cancer deaths. |
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