| 张 侨,冯兴丽,王亚菲,等.中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测分析[J].肿瘤学杂志,2025,31(2):128-133. |
| 中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测分析 |
| Disease Burden of Thyroid Cancer in Children and Adolescents and Trends Prediction in China |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-18 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1671-170X.2025.02.B007 |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺肿瘤 儿童 青少年 发病率 伤残调整寿命年 疾病负担 预测 |
| 英文关键词:thyroid neoplasms children adolescents incidence disability adjusted life year burden of disease prediction |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要： ［目的］ 描述和分析1990—2021年中国0~19岁儿童青少年甲状腺癌发病现状及其疾病负担的长期变化趋势，并预测2022—2030年变化趋势。［方法］ 数据来源于全球疾病负担2021数据库，利用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国儿童青少年不同性别及年龄组甲状腺癌发病率和伤残调整寿命年（disability adjusted life year，DALY）率长期变化趋势，并用灰色预测模型［gray model，GM（1，1）］对发病率趋势进行预测。［结果］ 1990年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌的发病率和DALY率分别为0.13/10万、1.36/10万，2021年发病率和DALY率分别为0.22/10万、0.79/10万，与1990年相比，发病率增加了69.23%，DALY率降低了41.91%；并且女性儿童青少年甲状腺癌的发病率高于男性，但DALY率低于男性；各年龄段男性发病率的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）均比同龄女性更高。高年龄组的发病率、DALY率高于低年龄组，5~19岁年龄段发病率呈明显上升态势（P<0.05），且随着年龄的增长，上升趋势越快，15~19岁年龄组上升趋势最快（AAPC=2.04%，P<0.05），0~19岁DALY率呈下降趋势（P<0.05），且随着年龄的增长，下降趋势变缓，5~9岁年龄组下降的最快（AAPC=-2.25%，P<0.05）。灰色预测模型GM（1，1）预测结果显示，2022—2030年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌的发病率呈上升趋势。［结论］ 1990—2021年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，应加大对此类疾病的关注并且积极倡导对儿童青少年甲状腺癌的早期筛查和预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Objective］ To analyze the disease burden of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021 and trends prediction from 2022 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data were obtained from the global burden of disease database 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term trends of thyroid cancer incidence and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rate in Chinese children and adolescents (0~19 years of age) by sex and age group； the grey prediction model GM(1， 1) was used to predict the incidence trends.［Results］ In 1990， the incidence and DALY rate of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in China were 0.13/105 and 1.36/105， respectively； and in 2021， the incidence and DALY rate were 0.22/105 and 0.79/105， respectively. Compared with 1990， the incidence increased by 69.23% and the DALY rate decreased by 41.91%. The incidence of thyroid cancer in female children and adolescents was higher， and the DALY rate was lower than those in male children and adolescents. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the incidence in male children and adolescents was higher than that in female children and adolescents of the same age. The incidence rate and DALY rate in the older age group were higher than those in the younger age group. The incidence rate in the age group of 5~19 years was significantly increased (P<0.05) ， that in the age group of 15~19 years had the fastest rising trend (AAPC=2.04%， P<0.05). The DALY rate decreased with age from 0 to 19 years old (P<0.05) ， and decreased more slowly with age increasing， with the fastest decrease in age of 5~9 years(AAPC=-2.25%， P<0.05). The result of grey prediction model GM(1， 1) showed that the incidence of thyroid cancer of Chinese children and adolescents will increase from 2022 to 2030. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in China is on the rise from 1990 to 2021. More attention should be paid and early screening and prevention of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents should be actively advocated. |
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