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2020-2022年甘肃省武威市肝癌流行特征及2023-2035年发病与死亡预测分析

Incidence and Mortality of Liver Cancer in Wuwei City of Gansu Province in 2020 to 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2035

投稿时间：2026-04-30 修订日期：2026-08-11

DOI：

中文关键词: 肝癌流行趋势发病率死亡率预测

英文关键词:Liver Cancer Epidemiological Trends Incidence Rate Mortality Rate Prediction

基金项目:甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRH0006)；甘肃省首席科学家项目(26RCKH001)；甘肃省重点研发项目（26YFFH001）

作者	单位	邮编
梁雪雪	甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院	733000
巩秦黎	甘肃中医药大学
张一贺	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院
田玲	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院
陈雪莲	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院
赵晓莉	甘肃中医药大学
王博乐	甘肃中医药大学
史发林	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院
张雁山^*	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院	733000
叶延程	甘肃省武威肿瘤医院

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中文摘要:

[目的] 分析 2010-2022 年甘肃省武威市肝癌发病、死亡流行特征与时间变化趋势，为区域肝癌精准防控提供依据。[方法] 选取2010-2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记处提供的肝癌发病、死亡数据以及当地的人口数据资料。按照性别、年龄和地区分层，分别计算武威市肝癌的粗发病（死亡）率，年龄别发病（死亡）率、不同地区发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）和世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称世标率），采用 Joinpoint 模型分析年度变化百分比（APC），评价发病与死亡趋势。[结果] 2010-2022 年武威市肝癌新发3911例，平均中标发病率15/10万；中标发病率2010-2013年显著上升（APC=26.72%，P=0.05），2013-2022年显著下降（APC=-4.69%，P=0.01）。中标死亡率2010-2013年显著上升（APC=32.09%，P=0.02），2013-2022年显著下降（APC=-4.12%，P=0.05）。男性发病与死亡负担显著高于女性，高发年龄集中于50岁以上，55~59岁达发病峰值，75~79岁达死亡峰值。[结论] 武威市肝癌防控成效显现，标化发病与死亡率呈先升后降趋势；男性、中老年人为重点防控人群，需持续强化早筛早诊与病因干预，巩固防控效果。

英文摘要:

[Objective] To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality in Wuwei City, Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022, so as to provide evidence for the precise prevention and control of liver cancer in the region. [Methods] The data on liver cancer incidence, mortality and corresponding population data in Wuwei City from 2010 to 2022 were collected from the local cancer registry. Stratified by gender, age and region, the crude incidence and mortality rates, age-specific incidence and mortality rates, regional incidence and mortality rates, as well as age-standardized rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC/ASMRC) and world standard population (ASIRW/ASMRW) were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and evaluate the temporal trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality. [Results] A total of 3,911 new liver cancer cases were reported in Wuwei City from 2010 to 2022, with an average age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population of 15.00/10?. The ASIRC increased significantly from 2010 to 2013 (APC=26.72%, P=0.05) and decreased markedly from 2013 to 2022 (APC=-4.69%, P=0.01). The ASMRC also rose significantly during 2010–2013 (APC=32.09%, P=0.02) and declined obviously during 2013–2022 (APC=-4.12%, P=0.05). The incidence and mortality burdens of liver cancer were significantly higher in males than in females. The high-risk population was mainly aged over 50 years, with the peak incidence in the 55–59 age group and the peak mortality in the 75–79 age group. [Conclusion]The prevention and control work of liver cancer in Wuwei City has achieved remarkable results, with the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates showing an overall trend of rising first and then falling. Males and middle-aged and elderly populations are key groups for targeted prevention and control. It is necessary to continuously strengthen early screening, early diagnosis and etiological intervention to consolidate the effectiveness of liver cancer prevention and control.

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