| Abstract Objective To analyze the incidence trend of cutaneous melanoma in the cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 and to predict its incidence from 2022 to 2030. Methods Incidence data of cutaneous melanoma from 2010 to 2021 were extracted from 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province through the China Cancer Registry Platform System. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated using Joinpoint regression model to analyze the incidence trend. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the incidence of cutaneous melanoma in the cancer registration areas of Gansu Province. Results From 2010 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of cutaneous melanoma in the cancer registration areas of Gansu Province showed an overall downward trend, decreasing from 0.65/105 to 0.29/105, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -8.82% (95% CI: -13.55% to -3.85%, P=0.003). Both males and females exhibited decreasing trends, with a greater decline in males (AAPC=-9.59%) than in females (AAPC=-6.74%). A significant decline was observed in urban areas (AAPC=-12.16%), whereas the downward trend in rural areas was not statistically significant (P=0.376). During 2010-2021, the ASIR of cutaneous melanoma showed an increasing trend in the 0-39 years age group (P=0.048), while significant decreasing trends were observed in the 40-69 years and ≥70 years age groups (P=0.018 and P=0.029). Birth cohort analysis indicated a significant decline in ASIR with the advancement of birth years. The BAPC model predicted that the ASIR of cutaneous melanoma for the entire province, males, and urban areas would decrease from 0.29/105, 0.28/105, and 0.24/105 in 2021 to 0.19/105, 0.11/105, and 0.03/105 in 2030, respectively. In contrast, the ASIR for females was predicted to increase from 0.32/105 in 2021 to 1.56/105 in 2030, and that for rural areas was predicted to rise substantially to 6.32/105 in 2030, indicating a marked increase compared to 2021.Conclusion The overall incidence of cutaneous melanoma in Gansu Province showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2021, with a significant decline in urban areas. The predicted trends from 2022 to 2030 suggest that the incidence will continue to decrease for the entire province and for males, with a greater decline in urban areas. However, a substantial increase is predicted for females and rural areas, indicating that these populations will become the main groups affected by cutaneous melanoma in the future and should be prioritized for surveillance and early intervention. |
