| Objective: To calculate the lifetime risk of developing and dying from cancer in Sichuan Province in 2021 based on data collected by the Sichuan Cancer Registry Center. Methods:Data on cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from 142 cancer registries across Sichuan Province in 2021. Using the method adjusted for competing mortality risks, combined with population and cause-of-death data of the same year, we estimated the lifetime risks of developing and dying from cancer, and further analyzed their disparities stratified by sex and residence (urban/rural). Results: In the cancer registry areas of Sichuan Province, the lifetime risk of developing cancer and dying from cancer among the general population in Sichuan Province was 26.16% and 20.48%, respectively, indicating that approximately one in four people would develop cancer and one in five would die from cancer in their lifetime. Males had higher lifetime risks of developing (29.05%) and dying from cancer (24.72%) than females (22.81% and 15.53%), a finding consistent with global trends. Urban residents exhibited higher lifetime risks of developing (27.88%) and dying from cancer (22.08%) compared with rural residents (25.10% and 19.35%). Lung cancer had the highest lifetime risk of developing (7.24%) and dying from cancer (5.99%), representing a major cancer burden for both sexes. Four digestive system cancers were among the top five malignancies with the highest risks of developing and dying from cancer. The risks of lung cancer and digestive system cancers rose sharply after age 50. The risk of prostate cancer increased markedly after 65 years of age. Breast cancer showed a bimodal age distribution; cervical cancer peaked in the 55–59 age group, and thyroid cancer exhibited a trend of younger onset. Conclusion: In the cancer registry areas of Sichuan Province, the lifetime risk of dying from cancer was significantly lower than the lifetime risk of developing cancer, indicating preliminary progress in regional cancer prevention and control. Substantial disparities in cancer developing and dying risks were observed by sex and residential area. Lung cancer and digestive system cancers were the predominant contributors to the overall cancer burden, with distinct age-specific risk peaks across different cancer types. Targeted prevention and control strategies tailored to diverse populations and cancer subtypes are warranted. Furthermore, intensified prevention and treatment of digestive system cancers and equitable allocation of urban and rural medical resources are essential to reduce regional cancer disparities. |
