|
| 2018—2023年宿迁市结直肠癌发病与死亡趋势分析及预测研究 |
| Analysis and Prediction Study on the Incidence and Mortality Trends of Colorectal Cancer in Suqian City from 2018 to 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-10-30 修订日期：2026-01-14 |
| DOI： |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 结直肠癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 |
| 英文关键词:colorectal cancer incidence rate mortality rate trend analysis |
| 基金项目:宿迁市指导性科技计划项目(Z2022083，Z202382) |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 9 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 分析2018—2023年江苏省宿迁市结直肠癌发病和死亡趋势并预测2024—2026年结直肠癌发病和死亡变化情况。方法 通过江苏省慢性病管理信息平台收集2018—2023年宿迁市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡资料，利用Excel和R 4.5计算结直肠癌发病（死亡）率、中标发病（死亡）率、世标发病（死亡）率、累积率（0~74岁），采用JoinPoint 4.8软件计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC），利用R4.5构建灰色模型GM（1,1）预测2024—2026年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率和死亡率。结果 2018—2023年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率为19.06/10万，中标发病率为12.00/10万，死亡率为8.73/10万，中标死亡率为4.94/10万。发病率和死亡率在45岁之前都保持较低水平，45岁之后则随着年龄增加迅速上升。2018至2023年间，宿迁市全人群、男性和女性的结直肠癌发病率年均百分比变化（AAPC）分别为7.52%、7.83%和7.07%，均呈现上升趋势（P<0.05）。同期，宿迁市全人群、男性和女性的结直肠癌死亡率AAPC分别为9.36%、9.97%和8.43%，也均呈上升趋势（P<0.05）。GM（1,1）预测结果显示，2024—2026年宿迁市结直肠癌发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。结论 宿迁市结直肠癌的发病率和死亡率均呈现上升趋势，应重视并加强结直肠癌的防治工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Suqian City, Jiangsu Province from 2018 to 2023, and predict the changes in the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer from 2024 to 2026. Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors in Suqian City from 2018 to 2023 were collected through the Jiangsu Provincial Chronic Disease Management Information Platform. Excel and R 4.5 were used to calculate the crude incidence (mortality) rate, age-standardized incidence (mortality) rate by Chinese standard population, age-standardized incidence (mortality) rate by world standard population, and cumulative rate for ages 0-74 years of colorectal cancer. JoinPoint 4.8 software was employed to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). R 4.5 was used to construct the grey model GM(1,1) for predicting the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Suqian City from 2024 to 2026. Results From 2018 to 2023, the incidence rate of colorectal cancer in Suqian City was 19.06/105, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population was 12.00/105, the mortality rate was 8.73/105, and the age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population was 4.94/105. Both incidence and mortality rates remained low before the age of 45, but increased rapidly with age after 45 years old. From 2018 to 2023, the AAPCs of colorectal cancer incidence in the total population, males, and females in Suqian City were 7.52%, 7.83%, and 7.07% respectively, all showing an upward trend (P<0.05). During the same period, the AAPCs of colorectal cancer mortality in the total population, males, and females in Suqian City were 9.36%, 9.97%, and 8.43% respectively, also showing an upward trend (P<0.05). The prediction results of the GM(1,1) model indicated that the incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Suqian City would continue to rise from 2024 to 2026. Conclusion The incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Suqian City are on the rise. Attention should be paid to and the prevention and control of colorectal cancer should be strengthened. |
|
在线阅读
查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|