| [Objective] To analyze the incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in the general population of Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, and to provide a basis for prognostic evaluation, prevention, and treatment of RCC.[Methods] Data on RCC incidence in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021 were obtained from the Qidong Cancer Registry System. Indicators such as the crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate by the Chinese standard population (ASRC), and age-standardized rate by the world standard population (ASRW) were calculated. Trend analysis was performed using Joinpoint software (version 4.9.1.0) to determine the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in RCC incidence. An age-period-cohort model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects.[Results] A total of 987 RCC cases were reported in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, accounting for 0.67% of all malignant tumor cases. Over the 50-year period, the CR of RCC was 1.76 per 100,000, the ASRC was 1.17 per 100,000, and the ASRW was 1.19 per 100,000. The male-to-female ratios for CR, ASRC, and ASRW were 1.52, 1.62, and 1.60, respectively. The AAPC of ASRW for RCC over 50 years was 4.42% (t=5.85, P<0.001), with 4.63% in males (t=6.34, P<0.001) and 4.14% in females (t=4.69, P=0.002), all showing statistically significant upward trends.Incidence rates increased with age across all age groups. Time trend analysis revealed statistically significant upward trends in AAPC for the 35–44 years (6.52%, t=2.86, P=0.021), 45–54 years (5.91%, t=5.27, P=0.001), 55–64 years (4.92%, t=4.92, P=0.001), 65–74 years (3.93%, t=4.10, P=0.003), and ≥75 years (5.94%, t=3.21, P=0.012) age groups.Age-period-cohort analysis showed a net drift of 3.74% (95% CI: 2.58%–4.92%). Local drift values for all age groups aged 20–79 years showed upward trends (all 95% CIs >0). Age effects indicated that incidence increased rapidly after 40 years of age, peaking in the 75–79 years group. Using the 1992–1996 period as the reference, the relative risks (RRs) for the 2007–2011, 2012–2016, and 2017–2021 periods were 2.32, 3.48, and 6.13, respectively (all P<0.05). Cohort effects showed that before 2002, RRs increased with later birth years, with the highest RR of 12.34 observed in the 1997–2001 birth cohort. Wald χ2 tests indicated statistically significant differences in net drift, total age deviation, total period deviation, total period RRs, and total cohort RRs for RCC incidence (all P<0.05).[Conclusion] The incidence of RCC in the general population of Qidong City showed a significant upward trend over the 50-year period. Marked differences were observed across genders, age groups, periods, and cohorts. Continued attention should be paid to RCC prevention and control research, especially targeting key populations. |
