| [Purpose] To analyze the incidence trend of bone malignant tumors in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021, so as to provide a basis for precise prevention and control. [Methods] Based on the cancer registration case database of Qidong City, the incidence registration data of bone malignant tumors from 1972 to 2021 were collected, and the crude rate (CR), age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population (ASRC), age-standardized incidence rates by world standard population (ASRW), truncated rates for 35~64 years old, the cumulative rates for 0~74 years old and the cumulative risk were analyzed and calculated. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the incidence rate was analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort factors on the incidence of bone malignant tumors in Qidong City. [Results] A total of 779 cases of bone malignant tumors were reported in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021, accounting for 0.53% of the total number of malignant tumor cases during the same period.?The CR, ASRC, ASRW were 1.39/105, 1.06/105 and 1.04/105 respectively. The truncated rates for 35~64 years old was 1.48/105, the cumulative incidence rates for 0~74 years old was 0.11%, and the cumulative incidence risk was 0.11%. There were 452 male cases, the CR, ASRC, ASRW were 1.63/105, 1.29/105 and 1.26/105, respectively. There were 327 female cases, the CR, ASRC, ASRW were 1.15/105, 0.85/105 and 0.83/105, respectively. Over the 50 years, the average AAPC values of the CR for the total population (both males and females combined) and females were 1.23% and 1.56% respectively (both P < 0.05), indicating that the upward trends were statistically significant. There are two peaks in the incidence rate by age group: the highest incidence in the low-age group is 0.63/105 for the 10~19 years old, and the highest in the high-age group is 4.86/105 for the 70~79 years old. Time trend analysis shows that the incidence rate in the age group of 10~19 years old is on the rise (AAPC = 3.10%), while that in the age group of 60~69 years old is on the decline (AAPC = -1.77%) (both P < 0.05). Birth cohort analysis showed that the incidence rate of the age group over 40 years old first increased and then decreased with the delay of birth periods, while the incidence rate of the age group of 10~29 years old reached a peak in the last period. The APC model analysis showed that the net drift value of the incidence rate was 0.00% (-0.71% for males and 0.58% for females), and all were not statistically significant (all P > 0.05). For the age group of 10~19 years old, the local drift values of the total population (both males and females) and males were 2.68% (95%CI: 0.79%~4.61%) and 2.63% (95%CI: 0.71%~4.60%) respectively, indicating a significant upward trend. The longitudinal age curve shows that the incidence risk has two peaks in the age group of 10~19 years old and 70~79 years old, which were 0.68/105 and 4.41/105 respectively. The period effect showed that the rate ratio (RR) values for the periods of 1972—1981 (0.71, 95%CI: 0.51~0.98) and 2012—2021 (0.72, 95%CI: 0.55~0.95) were both lower than the RR value of the reference period 1992—2001 (1.00), presenting a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Taking the birth cohort of 1952—1961 as the reference, the RR values fluctuated, the birth cohort of 2002—2011 had the highest incidence risk with an RR value of 2.32 (95%CI: 0.96~5.58), but the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The results of the Wald chi-square test showed that both the all age deviations and all period deviations in the incidence rate of bone malignant tumors in Qidong City were statistically significant (both P<0.05). [Conclusion] From 1972 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate of bone malignant tumors in the total population of Qidong City remained stable, while the crude incidence rate showed an upward trend. The rising trend of the incidence rate in the age group of 10~19 years old deserves special attention. The risk of bone malignant tumors varies significantly with age, showing fluctuations across different periods, while the impact of birth cohorts and the overall long-term trend is relatively weak. Precise prevention and control strategies should be formulated for high-risk groups, and research on the prevention and treatment of bone malignant tumors should be strengthened. |
