| [Purpose] To analyze the changing trends in disease burden of lung cancer among women in Yunnan cancer registration areas from 2016 to 2020, and to predict the trends for the next five years, providing a basis for epidemiological research and the development of prevention and control strategies for lung cancer.[Methods] Lung cancer data from 16 monitoring sites in Yunnan Province with continuous high-quality cancer registry data over five years were selected. The incidence and mortality rates, world population standardized rate (WSR) and Chinese population standardized rate (CSR), years of life lost due to premature death (YLL), and average years of life lost (AYLL) were calculated for 2016-2020, stratified by urban and rural areas and age groups. The Joinpoint Regression Program 4.7.0.0 was used to analyze the trends, and the grey system model was employed to predict the trends in lung cancer burden for the next five years.[Results] From 2016 to 2020, the incidence rate of lung cancer among women in Yunnan cancer registration areas was 28.27/105 (ASR 16.46/105，CSR 16.68/105), with urban areas at 28.78/105 (ASR 16.41 /105，CSR 16.52/105) and rural areas at 27.54 /105 (ASR 16.54 /105，CSR 16.71/105). The age-specific incidence rates were as follows: 0.04/105 for ages 0-14 (urban 0.06/105, rural 0), 4.15/105 for ages 15-44 (urban 4.16/105, rural 4.41/105), 38.64/105 for ages 45-64 (urban 39.03/105, rural 38.01/105), and 114.53/105 for ages 65 and above (urban 112.29/105, rural 118.31/105). During the same period, the mortality rate was 18.93/105(ASR 10.37 /105，CSR 10.54/105), with urban areas at 19.35/105 (ASR 10.40 /105，CSR 10.62/105) and rural areas at 18.27/105 (ASR 10.31 /105，CSR 10.56/105). The age-specific mortality rates were 0 for ages 0-14, 1.83/105 for ages 15-44 (urban 1.93/105, rural 1.68/105), 19.64/105 for ages 45-64 (urban 19.84/105, rural 19.32/105), and 93.41/105 for ages 65 and above (urban 92.19/105, rural 95.49/105). The incidence rate of lung cancer among women in Yunnan cancer registration areas showed a yearly increasing trend from 2016 to 2020 (APC = 5.30%, 95% CI: 2.88%-7.78%), with similar increases in both urban (APC=5.33%, 95% CI: 1.75%-9.03%) and rural areas (APC=5.19%, 95% CI: 0.74%-9.84%). The mortality rate remained stable during this period. YLL, YLL rate, and AYLL all showed a yearly decreasing trend (APC=-2.3%, 95% CI: -4.3%–-0.2%; APC=-3.2%, 95% CI: -5.9%–-0.4%; APC=-2.5%, 95% CI:-3.8%–-1.2%, respectively). The grey model predicted that the incidence rate of lung cancer among women in Yunnan Province would continue to rise from 31.45/105 in 2020 to 42.24/105 in 2025 (urban areas from 32.38/105 to 45.73/105, rural areas from 30.80/105 to 37.07/105). The mortality rate for the 45-65 age group would continue to decline, from 16.46/105 in 2020 to 10.57/105 in 2025 (urban areas from 16.97/105 to 12.55/105). YLL in the 65+ age group would increase from 4566.98 in 2020 to 5732.90 in 2025.[Conclusion] The incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer among women in Yunnan cancer registration areas are relatively low, with higher rates observed with increasing age, and a rapid increase after the age of 45. From 2016 to 2020, the incidence rate of lung cancer among women in Yunnan Province showed a yearly increasing trend, which is expected to continue from 2021 to 2025. The mortality rate is expected to remain stable during this period, while YLL, YLL rate, and AYLL are all expected to decrease. Prevention and control efforts should focus on the three-tier prevention of lung cancer, as well as health education for women and specialized research on lung cancer risk factors. It is also important to continue early diagnosis and treatment programs for individuals aged 45 and above to reduce the burden of lung cancer. |
