2010—2021年上海市杨浦区恶性肿瘤死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响
Temporal Trends in the Mortality of Malignant Tumors and its Impact on Life Expectancy in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 2010 to 2021
投稿时间:2025-06-22  修订日期:2025-12-01
DOI:
中文关键词:  恶性肿瘤  时间趋势  期望寿命  死亡谱  人口老龄化
英文关键词:malignant tumor  temporal trend  life expectancy  spectrum of mortality  aging
基金项目:2024年度杨浦区科技和经济委员会 杨浦区卫生健康委员会科研项目(YPGWQ202404)
作者单位邮编
秦永发* 上海市杨浦区疾病预防控制中心(上海市杨浦区卫生健康监督所)(慢性病防制科) 200090
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中文摘要:
      [目的] 分析2010—2021年上海市杨浦区居民恶性肿瘤死亡趋势,死亡谱变化,探讨恶性肿瘤对期望寿命的影响。[方法] 基于杨浦区2010—2021年户籍居民死因监测数据,计算恶性肿瘤死亡率、标化死亡率、期望寿命、去死因期望寿命(CELE)等指标的平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)。[结果] 2010—2021年杨浦区共35122人死于恶性肿瘤,其中男性21258人(60.53%)。全人群恶性肿瘤粗死亡率从2010年的242.99/10万上升至2021年的291.80/10万(AAPC=1.77%,P<0.05),标化死亡率从185.46/10万下降至152.80/10万(AAPC=-1.68%,P<0.05)。男性、女性粗死亡率均上升,标化死亡率均下降,男性死亡率始终高于女性。全人群、男女性恶性肿瘤死亡率均随年龄增长而上升。人群期望寿命呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.24%,P=0.001),2021年较2010年增加1.98岁。恶性肿瘤CELE呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.23%,P=0.001),而PGLEs和寿命损失率变化趋势无统计学意义(P>0.05)。恶性肿瘤死亡谱发生显著变化。泌尿系统肿瘤(前列腺癌、膀胱癌)和部分消化道肿瘤(结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌)的死亡负担上升。肝癌、脑恶性肿瘤等死亡负担呈下降趋势。肺癌始终是人群首位死因且死亡率持续增长。[结论] 2010—2021年杨浦区恶性肿瘤死亡率呈上升趋势。恶性肿瘤死亡率、死亡谱及对期望寿命的影响均存在性别差异。男性是重点人群,肺癌、泌尿系统、消化道恶性肿瘤是防控重点。应根据恶性肿瘤性别差异和人群死亡谱变化特点制定更具针对性的肿瘤防控策略。
英文摘要:
      [Purpose] To analyze the trends in the mortality of malignant tumors,change of the mortality spectrum among residents in Yangpu District, Shanghai, from 2010 to 2021, and to explore its impact o on life expectancy.[Methods] Based on the mortality surveillance data of registered residents in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021, the crude mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, life expectancy, and cause-eliminated life expectancy (CELE) of malignant tumors, as well as the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of these indicators were calculated. [Results] From 2010 to 2021, a total of 35,122 people in Yangpu District died of malignant tumors, including 21,258 males (60.53%). The CMR of malignant tumors in the entire population increased from 242.99/105 in 2010 to 291.80/105 in 2021 (AAPC = 1.77%, P < 0.05), while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 185.46/105 to 152.80/105 (AAPC = ?1.68%, P < 0.05). Both the crude and standardized mortality rates increased in males and females, but the standardized mortality rates decreased in both genders, with males consistently having higher mortality rates than females. The CMR of in the entire population and in both genders increased with age. Life expectancy showed an upward trend (AAPC = 0.24%, P = 0.001), increasing by 1.98 years in 2021 compared with 2010. The CELE of malignant tumors also increased (AAPC = 0.23%, P =0.001), while the trends in PGLEs and years of life lost were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). There were significant changes in the mortality spectrum of malignant tumors. The mortality burden of urinary system tumors (prostate cancer and bladder cancer) and some digestive tract tumors (colon cancer, rectal cancer, and pancreatic cancer) increased. In contrast, the mortality burden of liver cancer and brain malignancies decreased. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of death in the population, with a continuously increasing mortality rate. [Conclusion] The mortality rate of malignant tumors in Yangpu District increased from 2010 to 2021. The mortality rate, mortality spectrum, and impact on life expectancy of malignant tumors all exhibited gender differences. Males are a key population, and lung cancer, urinary system, and digestive tract malignancies are the priorities for prevention and control. Targeted cancer prevention and control strategies should be developed based on the gender differences in malignant tumors and the changes in the population mortality spectrum
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