Objective: To analyze the changing trends of the mortality rate and the differences in the number of deaths due to malignant tumors in Jiashan County from 2013 to 2023, and to provide a basis for the formulation of public health policies in Jiashan County. Methods: The data were sourced from the cause-of-death registration system in Jiashan County. The mortality rates by age, gender, and type of cancer in each year were calculated to describe the characteristics of deaths. The standardized mortality rate was calculated using the data from the sixth national population census. The Joinpoint model was used to calculate the percentage change per year to analyze the temporal trends, and the method of decomposing the number of deaths was used to analyze the contribution to the change in the number of deaths. Results: From 2013 to 2023, there were 10,860 deaths due to malignant tumors in Jiashan County, with a crude mortality rate of 247.46 per 100,000 population. The top five causes of cancer deaths were lung cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, and pancreatic cancer, accounting for 66.22% of all cancer deaths. The ranking was similar between genders. From 2013 to 2023, the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in the whole population showed a downward trend (APC = -3.2%, 95% CI: -4.1% to -2.2%), while there was no obvious trend in the crude mortality rate. The standardized mortality rates of tumors in the age groups of 15-34 years, 35-64 years, and 65+ years for males, and 35-64 years and 65+ years for females all showed a downward trend, and there was no obvious trend in the other age groups. Among the top five types of cancer, the crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer showed an upward trend (APC = 3.02%, P = 0.032), and this trend was contributed by males (APC = 3.44%, P = 0.043), but there was no obvious trend in the standardized mortality rate. The standardized mortality rates of lung cancer, liver cancer, colorectal cancer, and gastric cancer showed a downward trend, and the standardized mortality rates for both males and females also showed a downward trend. Lung cancer was the leading cause of death due to malignant tumors among people aged 35 and above in Jiashan County, and brain and nerve cancer was the leading cause of death due to malignant tumors among people under 35 years old. The increase in the number of deaths due to malignant tumors was contributed by population growth (9.74%), population aging (32.47%), and the decrease in age-specific mortality rate (-36.05%). Gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, and lung cancer were similar to the whole population. The number of deaths due to pancreatic cancer increased due to population growth, population aging, and the increase in age-specific mortality rate. Conclusion: From 2013 to 2023 in Jiashan County, the main types of cancer causing death were lung cancer and digestive tract tumors. The standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors decreased, while the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer increased. Population growth and aging led to an increase in the number of deaths.
Keywords: Malignant tumor; Mortality rate; Method of decomposing the number of deaths; Changing trend |
