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2008—2020年连云港市甲状腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化特征

Incidence trend and change characteristics in the age distribution of thyroid cancer in Lianyungang city from 2008 to 2020

投稿时间：2025-02-08 修订日期：2025-05-16

DOI：

中文关键词: 甲状腺癌发病年龄趋势连云港

英文关键词:Thyroid cancer Incidence Age Trend Lianyungang

基金项目:江苏省卫生计生委预防医学科研课题（Y2015030）

作者	单位	邮编
董建梅^*	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
李伟伟	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
马昭君	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
柴莉莉	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
秦绪成	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
张伟伟	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
相璐	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000
仲玮	连云港市疾病预防控制中心	222000

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中文摘要:

[目的] 分析2008—2020年连云港市甲状腺癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况。[方法] 根据连云港市恶性肿瘤登记系统收集的恶性肿瘤发病资料，选取2008-2020年甲状腺癌（ICD-10:C73）发病数据，计算各年度甲状腺癌发病率、中国人口中标率（中标率）、不同年龄组发病率、平均发病年龄及平均标化发病年龄等指标，计算平均年变化百分比（AAPC）并分析变化趋势。利用线性回归模型分析平均发病年龄与年份之间的相关性。通过构建出生队列模型，分析2008—2020年出生人群甲状腺癌发病率及其发病趋势。[结果] 2008—2020年连云港市总体、男性、女性、城市地区、农村地区甲状腺癌的粗发病率和中标率均呈现上升趋势（粗发病率AAPC依次为16.29%、14.52%、16.83%、14.39%、17.22%，中标率AAPC依次为16.22%、14.43%、16.53%、14.88%、16.98%，P均<0.001）。女性各年龄组、总体和男性（除外70-79岁）的其他6个年龄组甲状腺癌发病率均随时间发展呈现上升趋势（P均<0.05），其中30-39岁年龄组发病率每年上升幅度最大（P <0.05）。2008—2020年连云港市总体、男性、女性和城市地区的甲状腺癌平均发病年龄、平均标化发病年龄均呈现下降趋势（P均 <0.05）。相同年龄组出生年份不同的人群，随着出生年份推移甲状腺癌的发病率呈上升趋势。2008—2020年连云港市女性甲状腺癌发病率高于男性，城市地区甲状腺癌发病率高于农村地区。 [结论] 2008—2020年连云港市甲状腺发病率呈现上升趋势，平均发病年龄呈现下降趋势。城市地区及30岁以上女性人群为甲状腺癌的防控重点。

英文摘要:

[Objective] To investigate the trends of incidence and change in the age distribution of thyroid cancer in Lianyungang city from 2008 to 2020. [Methods] The information of diagnostic thyroid cancer cases (ICD-10: C73) from 2008 to 2020 were selected from Lianyungang cancer registry system. The crude incidence rate (CR) , the standardized incidence rate by Chinese population (ASIRC), the incidence of different age groups, crude and standardized average diagnostic age of thyroid cancer were calculated by sex and regions. And to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) for analyzing the trend of the indicators. The linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between average diagnostic age and year. A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze the incidence of thyroid cancer among the people born from 2008 to 2020 and its incidence trend. [Results] In Lianyungang city, the crude incidence and ASIRC of thyroid cancer among total population, the male, the female, urban and rural areas all showed upward trends from 2008 to 2020 (CR: AAPC =16.29%,14.52%,16.83%,14.39%,17.22%; ASIRC: AAPC=16.22%, 14.43%, 16.53%, 14.88%, 16.98%; P <0.001, for all.). The incidence of thyroid cancer in all age groups of women, and the other six age groups of total population and men (except 70-79 years old) all showed upward trends with time (P < 0.05). And the incidence rate of thyroid cancer in the 30-39 age group increased the most annually (P<0.05). The crude and standardized average diagnostic age of thyroid cancer among total population, the male, the female and urban areas all showed downward trends from 2008 to 2020 in Lianyungang (P < 0.05). The incidence of thyroid cancer in the same age group of people with different birth years showed an upward trend as the birth year went on. And in Lianyungang city from 2008 to 2020, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer among the female was higher than that of the male, and the ASIRC of thyroid cancer among the female was average 3.48 times that of the male. The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas. [Conclusions] In Lianyungang city, the incidence rate of thyroid cancer showed an increasing trend from 2008 to 2020, while the average diagnostic age showed a downward trend during the same period. And urban areas and women over 30 years old were the key targets for thyroid cancer prevention and control.

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