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| 中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌疾病负担变化 趋势及预测分析 |
| Trends and prediction of disease burden of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in China |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-18 修订日期：2024-10-23 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺癌 儿童青少年 疾病负担 预测 |
| 英文关键词:Thyroid cancer Children and adolescents Burden of disease Prediction |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘要：目的 描述和分析中国0~19岁儿童青少年甲状腺癌现状及其疾病负担的长期变化趋势并预测其发展趋势。方法 数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担数据库，利用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国儿童青少年不同性别及年龄组甲状腺癌发病率和伤残调整寿命年（DALY）率长期变化趋势，并用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对发病率趋势进行预测。结果 2021年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌的发病率和DALY率分别为0.22/10万、0.79/10万，与1990年相比，发病率增加了69.23%、DALY率降低了41.91%，并且女性甲状腺癌的发病率高于男性、但DALY率低于男性，各年龄段男性发病率的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）比同龄女性更高。高年龄组的发病率、DALY率高于低年龄组，5~19岁年龄段发病率呈明显上升态势（P<0.05），且随着年龄的增大，上升趋势越快，15~19岁年龄段上升趋势最快（AAPC=2.04%，P<0.05），0~19岁DALY率呈下降趋势（P<0.05），且随着年龄的增大，下降趋势变缓，5~9岁年龄段下降的最快（AAPC=-2.25%，P<0.05）。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测结果显示，2022-2030年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌的发病率呈上升趋势。结论 1990-2021年中国儿童青少年甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，应加大对此类疾病的关注并且积极倡导对儿童青少年甲状腺癌的早期筛查和预防。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract: Objective To describe and analyze the thyroid cancer status and the long-term trends of disease burden among Chinese children and adolescents aged 0-19 years, and predict its development trend.Method Data were obtained from the global burden of disease database 2021. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the long-term trends of thyroid cancer incidence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates in Chinese children and adolescents by sex and age group, the grey prediction model GM (1,1) was used to predict the incidence trends.Results In 2021, the incidence and DALY rate of thyroid cancer of Chinese children and adolescents were 0.22 per 100,000 and 0.79 per 100,000 respectively. Compared with 1990, the incidence increased by 69.23% and the DALY rate decreased by 41.91% , the incidence of thyroid cancer in women was higher than that in men, but the DALY rate was lower than that in men. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the incidence in men was higher than that in women of the same age. The incidence rate and DALY rate in the high age group were higher than those in the low age group. The incidence rate in the age group of 5-19 years was significantly increased (P <0.05) , the age group of 15-19 years had the fastest rising trend (AAPC = 2.04% ,P <0.05) , while the DALY rate decreased with age from 0 to 19 years old (P <0.05) , and decreased more slowly with age increasing, with the fastest decrease in age from 5 to 9 years old (AAPC = -2.25% , P <0.05) .The results of grey prediction model GM (1,1) show that the incidence of thyroid cancer of Chinesenese children and adolescents will increase from 2022 to 2030.Conclusion The incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in China was on the rise from 1990 to 2021. More attention should be paid to these diseases, and early screening and prevention of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents should be actively advocated. |
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