2013—2021年上海市静安区大肠癌筛查中不同联合初筛结果的风险分级研究
Risk Classification of Combined Primary Screening Results in Colorectal Cancer Screening in Jing’ an District of Shanghai from 2013 to 2021
投稿时间:2026-07-19  修订日期:2026-09-14
DOI:
中文关键词:  结直肠肿瘤  筛查  粪便隐血试验  肠镜检查  对应分析  风险分级
英文关键词:Colorectal Neoplasms  Mass Screening  Fecal Occult Blood Test  Colonoscopy  Correspondence Analysis  Risk Classification
基金项目:上海市静安区科学技术委员会课题(公共卫生2023GW02)
作者单位邮编
尹晓烈 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 200072
杨晓明 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 
王云徽 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 
褚晓婷 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 
张敏 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 
王妍敏* 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 200072
万秋萍 上海市静安区疾病预防控制中心(上海市静安区卫生健康监督所) 
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中文摘要:
      [目的] 分析上海市静安区2013—2021年社区居民大肠癌筛查中不同联合初筛结果组合与肠镜结局的对应关系,明确高风险人群分级,为差异化的干预策略提供科学依据。[方法] 大肠癌筛查资料来源于静安区大肠癌筛查项目数据库。根据危险度评估问卷联合两次粪便隐血试验(FOBT)结果将初筛阳性结果分为5种组合。以肠镜病理结果为金标准,将肠镜结局分为非癌前病变、癌前病变和大肠癌三类。采用多项Logistic回归和对应分析探索不同组合对应的肠道病变风险等级。[结果] 2013-2021年共纳入124 846名大肠癌筛查对象,其中初筛阳性者28 497人,完成肠镜检查者9 163人。各联合初筛结果组合的肠镜检出率有显著差异(均P<0.05)。以“问卷阳性+FOBT阴性”为参照,其他组合检出癌前病变和大肠癌的风险均显著升高(均P<0.05)。其中“问卷阴性+FOBT两次阳性”和“问卷阳性+FOBT两次阳性”的大肠癌(OR值分别为7.512和6.167)和癌前病变(OR值分别为2.315和2619)风险最高。对应分析结果显示,不同初筛组合与肠镜结局之间存在显著对应关系(均P<0.05),FOBT两次阳性组合对应的人群,其检出“大肠癌”和“癌前病变”的风险最高。[结论] 联合初筛结果组合与肠镜结局之间存在明确的风险梯度。两次FOBT阳性结果属于极高风险人群,建议根据风险分级制定差异化干预策略,以提高肠镜顺应性和筛查效益。
英文摘要:
      [Objective] To analyze the correspondence between different combinations of primary screening results and colonoscopy outcomes in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program among community residents in Jing "an District, Shanghai, from 2013 to 2021, and to clarify the classification of high-risk populations, so as to provide scientific basis for differentiated intervention strategies. [Methods] Screening data were derived from the database of CRC Screening Program in Jing "an District. Positive results of primary screening were divided into five combinations based on the results of the risk assessment questionnaire combined with two rounds of fecal occult blood tests (FOBT). Colonoscopy outcomes, considered as the gold standard, were categorized as non-precancerous lesions, precancerous lesions, and CRC. Multinomial logistic regression and correspondence analysis were used to assess the association between screening group and lesion risk. Multinomial logistic regression and correspondence analysis were used to assess the association between screening combinations and lesion risk. The "questionnaire-negative & double FOBT-positive" and "questionnaire-positive & double FOBT-positive" groups had the highest risks for CRC (OR=7.512 and 6.167, respectively) and precancerous lesions (OR=2.315 and 2.619, respectively). Correspondence analysis demonstrated a significant correspondence between screening groups and colonoscopy outcomes (all P<0.05), with the double FOBT-positive groups corresponding to the populations at the highest risk of colorectal cancer and precancerous lesions. [Conclusion] There is a clear risk gradient between combined primary screening results and colonoscopy outcomes. Individuals with double FOBT-positive results should be classified as extremely high-risk group, and differentiated intervention strategies based on risk levels are recommended to improve colonoscopy adherence and screening efficiency.
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