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| 2000-2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区胰腺癌流行现状与趋势分析 |
| Epidemiological Status and Trend Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer in Cancer Registration Areas of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2026-07-22 修订日期：2026-08-13 |
| DOI： |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 趋势分析 发病率 死亡率 流行特征 浙江 |
| 英文关键词:Pancreas cancer Trend Analysis incidence mortality epidemiological feature Zhejiang |
| 基金项目:浙江省疾病预防控制科技计划项目（2026JKZ068）；温州市医药卫生科研项目计划（2022005）； |
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| 中文摘要: |
| [目的]分析2000-2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区胰腺癌发病死亡流行特征与趋势，为制定胰腺癌防控策略提供依据。[方法] 提取浙江省22个肿瘤登记地区上报的2000-2021年肿瘤登记资料中ICD10编码为C25的胰腺癌发病与死亡个案资料和人口数据，计算合计、性别、年龄别和城乡地区发病（死亡）粗率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标发病（死亡）率）、世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称世标发病（死亡）率）、0-74岁累积率以及年度变化百分比（annual percentage change,APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change,AAPC）与95%可信区间(95%CI)等指标。[结果] 2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区胰腺癌粗发病率为13.41/10万，中标率5.98/10万，世标率6.88/10万，发病年龄高峰为80～85岁组，男性中标发病率是女性的1.44倍（7.08/10万vs 4.92/10万），城市地区是农村地区的1.08倍（6.16/10万vs 5.69/10万）。2021年胰腺癌粗死亡率11.88/10万，中标率5.04/10万，世标率5.93/10万，死亡年龄高峰为85岁以上组，男性中标死亡率是女性的1.51倍（6.09/10万vs 4.04/10万），城市地区是农村地区1.08倍（5.20/10万vs 4.80/10万）。2000-2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区胰腺癌粗发病率呈上升趋势AAPC为2.97%（95%CI：2.42%～3.53%，P＜0.01），但中标发病率的上升趋势没有统计学意义，AAPC为0.43%（95%CI：-0.03%～0.92% , P=0.07）。胰腺癌粗死亡率和中标死亡率均呈上升趋势，AAPC分别为3.42%（95%CI：2.69%～4.41%，P＜0.01）和0.75%（95%CI：0.21%～1.35%，P=0.02）。[结论]浙江省胰腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势，发病与死亡人群主要集中在40岁以后年龄组。应着力控制危险因素流行，关注重点人群发病死亡趋势，强化健康教育，倡导健康生活方式，降低疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| ［Purpose］To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and trends of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in cancer registration areas of Zhejiang Province between 2000 and 2021..［Methods］Individual-level incidence and mortality data of pancreatic cancer (ICD10: C25) and corresponding population data were extracted from cancer registration data reported by 22 cancer registration areas of Zhejiang Province from 2000-2021.Overall crude incidence (mortality) rates, age-standardised incidence (mortality) rates based on Chinese and world standard populations (ASR China and ASR world), cumulative risk (ages 0–74), annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated, with stratification by sex, age group and urban/rural areas.［Results］In 2021, the crude incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in Zhejiang cancer registration areas was 13.41 per 100 000 (5.98 per 100 000 for ASR China and 6.88 per 100 000 for ASR world). The incidence rate peaked in the 80-85 age group. The incidence ASR China in male was 1.44 times as high as that in female（7.08 per 100,000 vs 4.92 per 100,000），and the rate in urban areas was 1.08 times that in rural areas (6.16 per 100,000 vs 5.69 per 100,000).The crude mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in Zhejiang cancer registration areas was 11.88 per 100 000 (5.04 per 100 000 for ASR China and 5.93 per 100 000 for ASR world).The mortality rate peaked at the age group of over 85 years. The mortality ASR China in males was 1.51 times as high as that in females (6.09 per 100,000 vs 4.04 per 100,000), and the rate in urban areas was 1.08 times as high as that in rural areas (5.20 per 100,000 vs 4.80 per 100,000). From 2000 to 2021, the crude incidence trend of pancreatic cancer was significantly increasing(AAPC = 2.97%,95%CI:2.42%~3.53%, P＜0.01)， but the ASR China wasn’t（AAPC = 0.43%, 95% CI: -0.03%–0.92%, P = 0.07). Both crude mortality and mortality ASR China showed significant upward trends in pancreatic cancer(crude mortality: AAPC = 3.42%, 95% CI = 2.69%~4.41%，P<0.01; ASR China: AAPC=0.75%, 95% CI: 0.21%~1.35%; P=0.02).［Conclusion］Pancreatic cancer mortality rate in Zhejiang cancer registration areas showed increasing trend. Both incident and died cases occurred after the age group of 40 years old. We should focus on controlling the prevalence of risk factors, paying attention to key populations, strengthening health education and advocating healthy lifestyles to reduce the disease burden. |
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