| [Purpose] To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer in Jing"an District, Shanghai, from 2002 to 2021, and to provide fundamental data and evidence-based support for developing more precise prevention and control strategies for gastric cancer.
[Methods] Based on the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer in Jing"an District combined with demographic data from corresponding years, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and world-standardized rate of stomach cancer were respectively calculated. The Joinpoint model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and analyze the trends in incidence and mortality rates. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model (APC model) was used to examine the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on incidence and mortality rates.
[Results] From 2002 to 2021, the world standard incidence rate of stomach cancer in Jing"an District decreased from 22.86/105 to 13.28/105 (AAPC=-2.35%, P<0.01), and the world standard mortality rate decreased from 16.45/105 to 7.88/105 (AAPC=-3.52%, P<0.01).Those results of the APC modeling showed that the net drift of stomach cancer incidence rate value was -2.52%, with localized drift values of less than -2% at both 40-49 and 65-84 years of age, with -6.01% reached at 40-44 years of age, and the incidence rate increased rapidly after 60 years of age, peaking at 75-79 years of age (123.86/105), also peaked at 75-79 years old for men (199.49/105) and 80-84 years old for women (57.39/105). The risk of stomach cancer incidence in different periods showed a decreasing trend, and the later the birth, the lower the risk of incidence. The net drift value of stomach cancer mortality was -2.92%, and the localized drift values were all less than -2% from 45-84 years old, with 75-79 years old reaching -4.40%, and the mortality rate increased rapidly after 60 years old, peaking at 80-84 years old (78.41/105) for both males and females. also peaked at 80-84 years (132.98/105 and 31.49/105), with a decreasing trend in the risk of death from stomach cancer at different times of life, with a lower risk of death the later the birth.
[Conclusion] The incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in Jing"an District showed a downward trend. Age, period, and birth cohort were the influencing factors of the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer. The male aged 50-64 and female aged 50-59 are the main groups for the prevention and treatment of stomach cancer. The incidence of stomach cancer can be reduced by controlling its risk factors (smoking cessation, alcohol abstinence, treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection, gastritis, and other gastric diseases). Stomach cancer patients can be detected and diagnosed early through gastroscope and tumor marker screening to reduce the mortality rate; it is also necessary to prevent stomach cancer in male patients aged 55-59 and female patients aged 50-54 to reduce recurrence, metastasis, and overall mortality. |
