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江苏省启东市1972—2021年胰腺癌发病流行特征

Epidemic characteristics of incidence rate for pancreatic cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2021.

投稿时间：2023-11-29 修订日期：2024-02-08

DOI：

中文关键词: 胰腺癌发病率流行特征启东

英文关键词:Pancreatic cancer Incidence rate Epidemic characteristic Qidong

基金项目:南通市“十四五”科教强卫工程（通卫科技[2021]15号）南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题（MS2023121，MSZ2023109）

作者	单位	邮编
陈永胜^*	启东市人民医院/启东肝癌防治研究所/南通大学附属启东医院	226200

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中文摘要:

目的研究启东市1972—2021年胰腺癌发病流行特征及变化趋势，为制定胰腺癌的防控措施与政策提供依据。方法根据启东市1972—2021年胰腺癌发病登记数据和历年人口资料，计算发病粗率（CR）、中国人口标化发病率（ASRC）、世界人口标化发病率（ASRW）、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、累积风险，应用 Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 统计软件分析胰腺癌CR、ASRC、ASRW的年度变化百分比（APC）和平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）；利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对胰腺癌患者发病趋势变化的影响。结果 1972—2021年启东市胰腺癌发病5 674例，占全部癌症发病的3.85%，CR为10.12/10万，ASRC为3.66/10万，ASRW为6.09/10万，35~64岁截缩发病率为8.05/10万，0~74岁累积发病率为0.73%，累积风险为0.73%。男性发病3 122例，CR、ASRC、ASRW分别为11.29/10万、4.47/10万、7.41/10万；女性发病2 552例，CR、ASRC、ASRW分别为8.97/10万、2.93/10万、4.93/10万。0~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁、75+岁组的发病率分别为0.63/10万、6.41/10万、19.06/10万、43.46/10万、68.24/10万。0~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁、65~74岁、75+岁组的AAPC分别为1.30%（95%CI:-0.60%~3.23%）、1.12%（95%CI:0.10%~2.14%）、0.36%（95%CI:-0.70%~1.43%）、0.86%（95%CI:-0.16%~1.88%）、2.96%（95%CI:1.54%~4.41%）。45~54岁、75+岁组的上升趋势有统计学意义，均P<0.05。1972—2021年间胰腺癌CR、ASRC、ASRW的AAPC分别为4.40%（95%CI: 3.98%~4.81%）、0.95%（95%CI:0.57%~1.33%）、1.21%（95%CI:0.82%~1.59%）, CR、ASRC、ASRW的上升趋势均有统计学意义（P <0.05）。年龄-时期-队列模型分析显示，胰腺癌的发病风险随年龄的增长而升高，越晚出生的人发病风险越大（均P<0.05）。

英文摘要:

Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer incidence in Qidong between 1972 and 2021, and to provide guidelines for prevention and control measures and strategies. Methods The cancer registry data was collected and analyzed on pancreatic cancer incidence during 1972—2021 in Qidong by sex, age and time. Crude incidence rate (CR), China age-standardized rate (ASRC), world age-standardized rate (ASRW), annual percent change (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort model used to analyze the influence of age, period and birth cohort on the changes in the incidence trend of pancreatic cancer patients. Results From 1972 to 2021, there were 5 674 patients from pancreatic cancer in Qidong, accounting for 3.85% of all cancer new cases, with a incidence rate of 10.12/105, ASRC of 3.66/105, ASRW of 6.09/105. The truncated incidence of 35~64 years old was 8.05/105, the cumulative incidence rate between the ages of 0 and 74 years old was 0.73%, the cumulative risk was 0.73%. There were 3 122 patients for male, the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 11.29/105, 4.47/105 and 7.41/105. the patients for female were 2 552, and the CR, ASRC, and the ASRW were 8.97/105, 2.93/105 and 4.93/105,respectively. the CR of the 0~44, 45~54, 55~64, 65~74, 75~ year-old were 0.63/105, 6.41/105, 19.06/105, 43.46/105, 68.24/105. The AAPC of age-groups were 1.30% (95%CI:-0.60%~3.23%), 1.12% (95%CI:0.10%~2.14%), 0.36% (95%CI:-0.70%~1.43%), 0.86% (95%CI:-0.16%~1.88%), 2.96% (95%CI:1.54%~4.41%). The increasing trend of incidence rate in 45~54 year-old amd 75~ year-old were statistically significant (P<0.05). From 1972 to 2021, the AAPC of CR, ASRC, and ASRW in the pancreatic cancer were 4.40% (95%CI:3.98%~4.81%), 0.95%(95%CI:0.57%~1.33%), 1.21(95%CI: 0.82%~1.59%). The increasing trend of incidence rates were statistically significant (P<0.05). The age-period-cohort model shows that the risk of pancreatic cancer increases with age, and the greater risk of pancreatic cancer with the later the person is born. (P<0.05). Conclusions The incidence of the pancreatic cancer has presented a rising trend in the past fifty years, The health administrative department should formulate prevention and control measures to reduce the burden of pancreatic cancer.

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