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2007-2021年南京市肝癌死亡趋势及其对期望寿命的影响

Analysis of liver cancer death trend and its impact on life expectancy in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021

投稿时间：2023-07-17 修订日期：2024-03-08

DOI：

中文关键词: 肝癌期望寿命分解去死因期望寿命去死因期望寿命增长年

英文关键词:Liver cancer Decomposition of life expectancy Cause eliminated life expectancy Potential gains in life expectancy

基金项目:南京市医学科技发展项目（YKK21175）

作者	单位	邮编
周海茸^*	南京市疾病预防控制中心	210003
王巍巍	周海茸	210003

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中文摘要:

【摘要】目的分析江苏省南京市2007-2021年肝癌死亡率变化趋势，探讨肝癌死亡对期望寿命变化的影响，为制定卫生防治策略提供数据支持。方法利用南京市死因监测系统收集的2007-2021年户籍人口肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率，运用简略寿命表和去死因寿命表计算期望寿命、去死因期望寿命（CELE）、去死因期望寿命增长年（PGLEs），采用Joinpoint 4.6.0.0软件计算年度变化百分比（AAPC），采用Arriaga分解法估计各年龄组肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命变化的影响。结果 2007-2021年南京市肝癌标化死亡率整体呈下降趋势（AAPC=-6.20%，P＜0.05），除75-79岁年龄组肝癌死亡率变化呈稳定趋势外，其他年龄组呈现下降趋势。南京市肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到了“正向作用”，贡献了0.35岁，占期望寿命增长的4.92%。除1-5岁、10-15岁年龄组对期望寿命增长呈“负向贡献”外（1-5岁：-0.002岁，0.59%，10-15岁：-0.001岁，0.33%），其他各年龄组均呈现“正向贡献”，其中对期望寿命正向贡献最大的是50-54岁年龄组（0.060岁，0.83%）。南京市居民期望寿命从2007年的76.88岁增长到2021年84.07岁，增长了7.19岁，呈上升趋势（AAPC=0.66%，P＜0.05），肝癌CELE增长了7.06岁（AAPC=0.66%，P＜0.05），PGLEs减少了0.12岁（AAPC=-1.94%，P＜0.05），寿命损失率下降34.55%（AAPC=-2.65%，P＜0.05）。结论 2007-2021年南京市肝癌标化死亡率下降，肝癌死亡率变化对期望寿命增长起到积极作用，肝癌导致的寿命损失下降。

英文摘要:

Abstract：Objective To analyze the change trend of liver cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021, explore the effects of liver cancer death on life expectancy change， and develop public health policy. Methods Based on the national cause-of-death surveillance in in Nanjing from 2007 to 2021, we analyzed the mortality of liver cancer. Life table and cause-eliminated life table were applied to calculate life expectancy, cause eliminated life expectancy (CELE) and potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs). Software Joinpoint 4.6.0.0 was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Arriaga"s decomposition method was used to estimate the contribution of the changes of liver cancer mortality in each age group to life expectancy. Results From 2007 to 2021，the standardized mortality of liver cancer in Nanjing showed a downward trend (AAPC=-6.20%, P＜0.05). The changes of liver cancer mortality had a positive contribution to life expectancy, which contributed 0.35 years to the life expectancy growth and a contribution degree of 4.92%. In addition to the 1-5 and 10-15 age groups, which had negative contributions to life expectancy (1-5 age group: -0.002years, 0.59%, 10-15 age group: -0.001years, 0.33%), all other age groups had positive contributions, among which the 50-54 age group had the greatest positive contribution to life expectancy (0.060 years, 0.83%). The life expectancy of Nanjing residents increased from 76.88 years in 2007 to 84.07 years in 2021, with an increase of 7.19 years (AAPC=0.66%, P＜0.05), the liver cancer CELE increased by 7.06 years (AAPC=0.66%, P＜0.05), the PGLEs decreased by 0.12 years (AAPC=-1.49%，P＜0.05), and life loss rate decreased by 34.559% (AAPC=-2.65%，P＜0.05). Conclusions From 2007 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in Nanjing decreased gradually, contributing to the growth of life expectancy. The life loss caused by liver cancer decreased gradually.

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