| 王博乐,曾红梅,刘玉琴,等.2010—2022年甘肃省武威市胰腺癌流行特征及2023—2030年发病和死亡预测分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(10):800-806. |
| 2010—2022年甘肃省武威市胰腺癌流行特征及2023—2030年发病和死亡预测分析 |
| Trends of Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Wuwei City， Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022 and Projections from 2023 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-12 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.10.A008 |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 预测 甘肃 |
| 英文关键词:pancreatic cancer incidence mortality trend analysis projection Gansu |
| 基金项目:甘肃省首席科学家项目（26RCKH001）；甘肃省重点研发项目（26YFFH001）；甘肃省科技计划联合科研基金项目（25JRRH009）；甘肃中医药大学研究生创新创业基金（2026CXCY-168） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析甘肃省武威市2010—2022年胰腺癌发病与死亡趋势，并预测2023—2030年变化趋势。［方法］ 利用武威市肿瘤登记资料，采用Joinpoint 5.4.0.0软件计算粗率、标准化率等主要指标的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。一般线性回归模型分析胰腺癌平均发病和死亡年龄变化趋势，贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型（Bayesian age-period-cohort，BAPC）预测2023—2030年胰腺癌标准化发病及死亡率。［结果］ 2010—2022年，武威市胰腺癌粗发病率由2.17/10万上升至5.71/10万（AAPC=10.01%，P=0.002），粗死亡率由0.99/10万上升至4.15/10万（AAPC=11.16%，P=0.016）。平均发病年龄由60.91岁上升至66.94岁（P=0.001）；平均死亡年龄总体变化不明显，但女性呈显著上升趋势（β=0.64）。60岁及以上人群胰腺癌发病构成由59.09%上升至77.42%，死亡构成年均下降2.09%，但后者变化趋势无统计学意义。BAPC预测显示，2023—2030年武威市胰腺癌年龄标准化发病率和死亡率仍上升，且男性高于女性。［结论］ 2010—2022年武威市胰腺癌发病率持续上升，发病和死亡向高龄人群集中，未来疾病负担仍将加重。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality trends of pancreatic cancer in Wuwei City， Gansu Province from 2010 to 2022， and to predict their changes from 2023 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data were obtained from the Wuwei Cancer Registry. Joinpoint 5.4.0 software was used to calculate crude and standardized rates and their average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals. Linear regression was applied to examine trends in mean age at diagnosis and death， and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict standardized incidence and mortality rates for 2023—2030. ［Results］ From 2010 to 2022， the crude incidence rate increased from 2.17/105 to 5.71/105 (AAPC=10.01%， P=0.002)， and the crude mortality rate increased from 0.99/105 to 4.15/105 (AAPC=11.16%， P=0.016). The mean age at diagnosis rose from 60.91 years old to 66.94 years old (P=0.001)， while the mean age at death showed no overall change， though a significant upward trend was observed in females (β=0.64). The proportion of cases in individuals aged ≥60 years old increased from 59.09% to 77.42%（P=0.039）， whereas the proportion of deaths in this age group decreased by an average of 2.09% per year， without statistical significance. BAPC predictions indicate that age-standardized incidence and mortality rates will continue to rise from 2023 to 2030， with males consistently higher than females. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Wuwei City steadily increased from 2010 to 2022， with both incidence and mortality increasingly concentrated in older populations， suggesting a further rise in disease burden in the future. |
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