| 秦 宇,姚 霜,庹吉妤,等.2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病和死亡特征及2012—2021年变化趋势[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(10):791-799. |
| 2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病和死亡特征及2012—2021年变化趋势 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Liver Cancer in Cancer Regi-stration Areas in Hubei Province in 2021 and Trends from 2012 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-28 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.10.A007 |
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| 中文关键词: 肝癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 湖北 |
| 英文关键词:liver cancer incidence mortality trend analysis Hubei |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病和死亡特征及其2012—2021年变化趋势。［方法］ 利用2021年湖北省31个肿瘤登记处上报的肝癌发病及死亡数据，计算肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病/死亡粗率及其中标率、世标率以及0~74岁累积率等指标。分析2012—2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌中标发病率、死亡率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。［结果］ 2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区新发肝癌6 721例，占全部新发恶性肿瘤病例的7.91%，粗发病率为26.07/10万，中标及世标发病率分别为13.76/10万、15.11/10万，0~74岁累积发病率为1.60%。2021年湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌死亡6 394例，占全部恶性肿瘤死亡的13.51%，粗死亡率为24.80/10万，中标及世标死亡率分别为12.79/10万、14.23/10万，0~74岁累积死亡率为1.47%。发病、死亡水平均呈现男性高于女性、农村高于城市的态势，且均随着年龄的增长而升高，并分别在75~79岁、80~84岁年龄组达到顶峰。2012—2021年，湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌中标发病率（AAPC=-4.66%，95%CI：-5.34%~-3.79%）和死亡率（AAPC=-3.65%，95%CI：-4.01%~-3.22%）均呈连续下降趋势，总体下降幅度分别为35.73%、28.27%，其中肝癌中标发病率在2016—2021年下降趋势显著（APC=-6.00%，95%CI：-8.66%~-5.07%），中标死亡率则在2015—2021年间有显著下降趋势（APC=-5.23%，95%CI：-6.00%~-4.74%）。［结论］ 湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病及死亡水平性别、城乡差异明显，且随着年龄增长而升高。近10年来，湖北省肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病率和死亡率呈现明显下降趋势，但肝癌绝对疾病负担仍较重，应继续加强肝癌的综合防控措施，持续降低肝癌疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the cancer registration areas of Hubei Province in 2021 and the trends from 2012 to 2021. ［Methods］ Incidence and mortality data for liver cancer reported by 31 cancer registries in Hubei Province in 2021 were used to calculate crude rates， age-standardized rates by the Chinese (ASIRC/ASMRC) and world (ASIRW/ASMRW) standard populations， cumulative rates (0-74 years old). Joinpoint regression was applied to estimate annual percentage change (APC)， average annual percentage change (AAPC)， and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ASIRC and ASMRC from 2012 to 2021. ［Results］ In 2021， 6 721 new liver cancer cases were recorded in Hubei cancer registration areas， accounting for 7.91% of all new malignancies. The crude incidence was 26.07/105， with ASIRC of 13.76/105 and ASIRW of 15.11/105； the cumulative incidence (0-74 years old) was 1.60%. Liver cancer deaths numbered 6 394， comprising 13.51% of all cancer deaths. The crude mortality was 24.80/105， with ASMRC of 12.79/105 and ASMRW of 14.23/105； the cumulative mortality was 1.47%. Both incidence and mortality were higher in males than those in females and in rural than in urban areas， and they increased with age， peaking at age groups of 75-79 and 80-84 years old， respectively. From 2012 to 2021， ASIRC and ASMRC both showed significant downward trends， with AAPCs of -4.66% (95%CI： -5.34%--3.79%) and -3.65% (95%CI： -4.01%--3.22%)， corresponding to overall declines of 35.73% and 28.２7%， respectively. The decline accelerated in recent years：ASIRC decreased significantly from 2016 to 2021 (APC=-6.00%， 95%CI： -8.66%--5.07%)， and ASMRC from 2015 to 2021(APC=-5.23%， 95%CI： -6.00%--4.74%). ［Conclusion］ In Hubei cancer registration areas， liver cancer incidence and mortality exhibit significant sex and urban-rural disparities and increase with age. Although rates have declined markedly over the past decade， the absolute disease burden remains substantial. Continued comprehensive prevention and control strategies are warranted to further reduce the burden of liver cancer. |
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