| 缪伟刚,周金意,俞 浩,等.2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(8):635-642. |
| 2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析 |
| Trends in Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Age at Diagnosis in Cancer Registration Areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-13 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.08.A007 |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 发病率 发病年龄 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal cancer incidence diagnosis age Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:江苏省卫生计生委科研课题（H2017017） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区人群食管癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况。［方法］ 基于2009—2021年江苏省16个符合质量控制标准、数据连续的肿瘤登记处资料，提取食管癌发病数据进行分析。世界人口标准化发病率参照Segi世界标准人口年龄结构进行计算（简称世标率）。分性别和城乡计算不同时期、年龄组和出生队列的发病率，并采用Joinpoint软件对发病率趋势进行分析，计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。分性别和城乡计算2009—2021年食管癌平均发病年龄和不同年龄组的发病构成，平均发病年龄的趋势变化采用线性回归模型分析，60岁及以上年龄组人群发病构成比趋势变化采用对数线性模型分析。［结果］ 2009—2021年江苏肿瘤登记地区食管癌世标发病率无论男女性或城乡，均呈显著下降趋势，其中全省女性下降幅度（AAPC=-7.79%，95%CI：-8.44%~-7.13%）高于全省男性（AAPC=-5.80%，95%CI：-6.19%~-5.40%），城市（AAPC=-7.72%，95%CI：-8.43%~-7.02%）下降幅度高于农村（AAPC=-5.79%，95%CI：-6.78%~-4.79%）。不同年龄段发病趋势结果显示，2009—2021年全省男性30岁及以上各年龄组食管癌发病率均呈显著下降趋势，AAPC在-12.83%~-2.34%。全省女性40~79岁各年龄组发病率均呈显著下降趋势，AAPC在-17.83%~-5.40%。2009—2021年江苏省人群食管癌平均发病年龄每年上升约0.42岁（95%CI：0.40~0.43岁），调整人口结构后，平均每年上升0.34岁（95%CI：0.31~0.36岁）。2009—2021年60岁及以上人群的食管癌标化发病构成每年增加1.43%（95%CI：1.32%~1.55%）。与2009年相比，2021年江苏省食管癌的标化年龄别发病构成总体呈右移趋势。［结论］ 2009—2021年江苏省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病率呈现下降趋势，60岁及以上老年人群标化发病比重增加，发病年龄呈现相对后移趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends in esophageal cancer incidence and changes in age at diagnosis in cancer registration areas of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2021. ［Methods］ Esophageal cancer incidence data were extracted from 16 cancer registries in Jiangsu Province that met quality control standards and provided continuous data from 2009 to 2021. Age-standardized rates were calculated using the world standard population. Incidence rates were calculated by sex and urban/rural residence across different periods， age groups， and birth cohorts. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze incidence trends， with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) calculated. Mean age at diagnosis and age-specific case distribution were analyzed by sex and residence. Linear regression models were applied to assess trends in mean age at diagnosis， and log-linear regression models were used to analyze trends in the proportion of cases aged ≥60 years old. ［Results］ From 2009 to 2021， the age-standardized incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu cancer registration areas declined significantly in both sexes and in urban/rural areas. The decrease was more pronounced in women (AAPC=-7.79%， 95%CI： -8.44%--7.13%) than that in men (AAPC=-5.80%， 95%CI： -6.19%--5.40%) at the provincial level. Urban areas showed a greater reduction(AAPC=-7.72%， 95%CI： -8.43%--7.02%) than rural areas (AAPC=-5.79%， 95%CI： -6.78%--4.79%). By age group， incidence rates among men aged ≥30 years old decreased significantly (AAPC ranging from -12.83% to -2.34%). Among women， incidence rates decreased significantly in those aged 40-79 years old(AAPC ranging from -17.83% to -5.40%). The mean age at diagnosis increased by approximately 0.42 years annually(95%CI： 0.40-0.43 years). After age standardization， the annual increase was 0.34 years (95%CI： 0.31-0.36 years). The age-standardized proportion of cases aged ≥60 years old increased by 1.43% per year (95%CI： 1.32%-1.55%). Compared with 2009， the age-specific incidence distribution in 2021 showed an overall rightward shift. ［Conclusion］ From 2009 to 2021， esophageal cancer incidence in Jiangsu cancer registration areas exhibited a declining trend， accompanied by an increased proportion of age-standardized cases among the elderly (≥60 years old) and a relative upward shift in age at diagnosis. |
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