| 唐溪晗,侯永钰,曾雨欣,等.2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌流行特征及2022—2030年发病和死亡预测分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(8):626-634. |
| 2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌流行特征及2022—2030年发病和死亡预测分析 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Gallbladder Cancer in Gansu Cancer Registration Areas in 2021 and Projections from 2022 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2026-01-22 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.08.A006 |
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| 中文关键词: 胆囊癌 发病 死亡 趋势 预测 甘肃 |
| 英文关键词:gallbladder cancer incidence mortality trend prediction Gansu |
| 基金项目:甘肃省自然科学基金（23JRRA1800）；甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院创新创业基金（2026CXCY-170） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析甘肃省肿瘤登记地区2021年胆囊癌流行特征及2010—2021年发病率和死亡率趋势变化，并对2022—2030年发病和死亡流行情况进行预测。［方法］ 基于甘肃省肿瘤登记处2010—2021年胆囊癌发病和死亡数据及人口学资料，按年龄、性别、城乡分层，计算粗发病/死亡率、中国人口标化发病/死亡率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化发病/死亡率（简称世标率）、0~74岁累积发病/死亡率。采用 Joinpoint 回归模型分析发病和死亡趋势并计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测 2022—2030年的发病率和死亡率。［结果］2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌中标发病率为3.02/10万，女性（3.19/10万）高于男性（2.85/10万），农村（3.06/10万）高于城市（2.93/10万）。中标死亡率为1.67/10万，女性（1.83/10万）高于男性（1.50/10万），城市（1.82/10万）高于农村（1.57/10万）。胆囊癌发病率和死亡率均随年龄增长而升高，均在80~84岁年龄组达高峰（29.85/10万和25.66/10万）。2010—2021年间全省胆囊癌粗发病率由3.64/10万升至4.99/10万（AAPC=4.51%，95%CI：0.88%~8.26%，P=0.019），但经年龄标准化后，发病的变化趋势无统计学意义。预测显示，2022—2030年甘肃省胆囊癌中标发病率将呈上升趋势，预计2030年达4.32/10万，较2021年上升43.04%；而中标死亡率则呈下降趋势。［结论］ 甘肃省胆囊癌疾病负担仍呈加重趋势，人口老龄化是主要驱动因素。农村地区、男性群体及高龄人群发病风险凸显。未来需采取精准化分层防控策略，强化农村地区健康干预、高危人群筛查及规范诊疗，以遏制胆囊癌疾病负担增长。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality of gallbladder cancer in Gansu cancer registration areas in 2021， examine the trends from 2010 to 2021， and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data on gallbladder cancer incidence and demographic information from 2010 to 2021 were obtained from Gansu Provincial Cancer Registry. Stratified by age， sex， and urban/rural residence， we calculated crude rates， age-standardized rates using the Chinese standard population (ASIRC and ASMRC) and the world standard population (ASIRW and ASMRW)， as well as cumulative rates (0-74 years old). Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict incidence and mortality rates for 2022—2030. ［Results］ In 2021， the ASIRC for gallbladder cancer in Gansu cancer registration areas was 3.02/105， with a higher rate in women (3.19/105) than that in men (2.85/105)， and in rural areas (3.06/105) than in urban areas (2.93/105). The ASMRC was 1.67/105， also higher in women(1.83/105) than that in men (1.50/105)， and higher in urban (1.82/105) than in rural areas (1.57/105). Both incidence and mortality increased with age， peaking in the age group of 80-84 years old (29.85/105 and 25.66/105， respectively). From 2010 to 2021， the provincial crude incidence rate increased from 3.64/105 to 4.99/105 (AAPC=4.51%， 95%CI： 0.88%-8.26%， P=0.019). However， after age standardization， the trend in incidence was not statistically significant. Predictions indicate that the ASIRC for gallbladder cancer in Gansu will rise from 2022 to 2030， reaching 4.32/105 by 2030， a 43.04% increase from 2021， while the ASMRC is projected to decline. ［Conclusion］ The disease burden of gallbladder cancer in Gansu Province is expected to intensify， primarily driven by population aging. Elevated risks are notable in rural areas， among males， and in older age groups. Precision-based， stratified prevention and control strategies—including health interventions in rural regions， screening of high-risk populations， and standardized diagnosis and treatment—are urgently needed to curb the growing burden. |
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