| 李少芳,郭兰伟,邢天放,等.2014—2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡流行趋势及疾病负担分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(7):547-555. |
| 2014—2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡流行趋势及疾病负担分析 |
| Analysis of Mortality Trends and Disease Burden of Malignant Tumors Among Residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2026-02-13 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.07.A007 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 死亡率 潜在减寿年数 疾病负担 河南 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor mortality potential years of life lost disease burden Henan |
| 基金项目:河南省医学科技攻关项目（LHGJ20250139，LHGJ20250117）；河南疾控科技攻关专项计划项目（HNCDCZD20250102） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要： ［目的］ 分析 2014—2023 年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡流行趋势及疾病负担情况。［方法］ 利用中国疾病预防控制中心人口死亡信息登记管理系统中 2014—2023 年河南省国家级死因监测点报告的恶性肿瘤死亡数据，运用Excel 2016、SPSS 21.0对死亡资料进行分析，计算粗死亡率、中国人口标化死亡率（简称中标率）、潜在减寿年数（potential years of life loss，PYLL）、潜在减寿率（potential years of life loss rate，PYLLR）、标化潜在减寿年数（standardized potential years of life loss，SPYLL）、标化潜在减寿率（standardized potential years of life loss rate，SPYLLR）等指标；运用 Joinpoint 4.9.0 软件计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），描述各指标随时间变化趋势情况。［结果］ 2014—2023年，河南省居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率为132.97/10万，中标率为122.23/10万，男性恶性肿瘤死亡率均高于女性。时间趋势分析显示，河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡率在2020年出现拐点：2014—2020年期间，死亡率呈显著上升趋势（APC=1.68%，P=0.019）；2020—2023年期间，死亡率呈波动下降态势，但变化趋势无统计学意义（APC=-2.98%，P=0.089）。2014—2023年河南省居民恶性肿瘤死因顺位前7位依次为肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、乳腺癌，除乳腺癌外，其余6类恶性肿瘤死亡率均表现为男性高于女性。不同恶性肿瘤死亡率的时间变化趋势存在差异：结直肠癌、胰腺癌及乳腺癌的死亡率在2014—2023年间呈显著上升趋势（P均<0.05）；而肝癌、食管癌的死亡率则呈显著下降趋势（P均<0.05）。疾病负担分析结果显示，2014—2023年河南省居民因恶性肿瘤导致的PYLL累计达3 298 370.50人年，其中男性为2 108 170.00人年，女性为1 190 200.50人年；全人群PYLLR为13.23‰，男性PYLLR为16.44‰，女性PYLLR为9.83‰。分癌种来看，肝癌、肺癌所致PYLL居前2位，分别为720 124.00人年、713 004.50人年，是造成居民恶性肿瘤早逝负担的主要癌种。［结论］ 2014—2023年，河南省居民恶性肿瘤整体死亡率呈现波动变化趋势，但该病造成的疾病负担仍处于较高水平。肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌是河南省居民恶性肿瘤死亡的主要病种，且男性为恶性肿瘤防控的重点人群，建议进一步加强重点恶性肿瘤及重点人群的筛查干预与综合防治工作，以期降低恶性肿瘤死亡率，减轻其所致的疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological trends and disease burden of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023. ［Methods］ The mortality data of malignant tumors reported by the national mortality surveillance sites in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 were extracted from the Population Death Information Registration and Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Excel 2016 and SPSS 21.0 software were used for statistical analysis of the mortality data， and core indicators were calculated， including crude mortality rate， age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC)， potential years of life loss (PYLL)， potential years of life loss rate (PYLLR)， standardized potential years of life loss (SPYLL)， and standardized potential years of life loss rate (SPYLLR). Joinpoint 4.9.0 software was applied to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC)， and to describe the temporal trends of each indicator. ［Results］ From 2014 to 2023， the crude mortality rate of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province was 132.97/105， ASMRC was 122.23/105. The mortality rate of malignant tumors in males was consistently higher than that in females. Time trend analysis showed that the mortality rate of malignant tumors in Henan Province had an inflection point in 2020： from 2014 to 2020， the mortality rate showed a significant upward trend (APC=1.68%， P=0.019)； from 2020 to 2023， the mortality rate showed a fluctuating downward trend， with no statistically significant change (APC=-2.98%， P=0.089). The top 7 causes of death from malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 were lung cancer， liver cancer， gastric cancer， esophageal cancer， colorectal cancer， pancreatic cancer， and breast cancer in order. Except for breast cancer， the mortality rates of the other 6 types of malignant tumors were all higher in males than in females. There were differences in the temporal trends of mortality for different malignant tumors： the mortality rates of colorectal cancer， pancreatic cancer and breast cancer showed a significant upward trend from 2014 to 2023 (all P<0.05)， while the mortality rates of liver cancer and esophageal cancer showed a significant downward trend (all P<0.05). The results of disease burden analysis showed that the cumulative PYLL caused by malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 reached 3 298 370.50 person-years， including 2 108 170.00 person-years for males and 1 190 200.50 person-years for females. The PYLLR of the whole population was 13.23‰， with 16.44‰ for males and 9.83‰ for females. By cancer type， liver cancer and lung cancer ranked the top two in terms of PYLL， with 720 124.00 person-years and 713 004.50 person-years respectively， which were the main cancer types causing the burden of premature death from malignant tumors among residents. ［Conclusion］ From 2014 to 2023， the overall mortality rate of malignant tumors among residents in Henan Province showed a fluctuating trend， but the disease burden caused by the disease was still at a high level. Lung cancer， liver cancer， gastric cancer， esophageal cancer， colorectal cancer， and pancreatic cancer are the main types of malignant tumor death among residents in Henan Province， and men are the key population for malignant tumor prevention and control. It is suggested to further strengthen the screening， intervention， and comprehensive prevention and treatment of key malignant tumors and key populations， in order to reduce the mortality rate of malignant tumors and alleviate the resulting disease burden. |
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