| 蔡岩坡,陈永胜,张永辉,等.1972—2021年江苏省启东市劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析及2022—2031年预测[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(6):475-485. |
| 1972—2021年江苏省启东市劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡趋势分析及2022—2031年预测 |
| Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality in the Working-Age Population of Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021 and Projection from 2022 to 2031 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-29 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.06.A007 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 劳动力人口 死亡率 趋势分析 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumors working-age population mortality trend analysis Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:南通市卫生健康委员会科研课题（MSZ2025120）；南通大学校级科研基金临床医学专项资助项目（2024JY050） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 对1972—2021年启东市劳动力人口（15~64岁）恶性肿瘤死亡趋势进行分析，并预测其后10年死亡变化趋势。［方法］ 根据启东市1972—2021年劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡数据和历年人口资料，计算死亡粗率（crude rate，CR）、中国人口标化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population，ASMRC）、世界人口标化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population，ASMRW）；应用 Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 统计软件分析恶性肿瘤CR、ASMRC、ASMRW的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）；采用SAS 9.2软件，用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型对2022—2031年ASMRW趋势进行预测。［结果］ 1972—2021年间，启东市劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡数为53 846例，CR、ASMRC、ASMRW的AAPC分别为0.31%、-1.65%、-1.52%（P均＜0.05）。男、女性恶性肿瘤死亡数分别为36 600例和17 246例，ASMRW的AAPC分别为-1.79%、-1.07%（P均＜0.001）。劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡率随年龄的增长而升高。15~24岁、25~34岁、35~44岁、45~54岁、55~64岁组死亡率的AAPC分别为-1.38%、-3.00%、-1.85%、-1.29%、-0.99%（P均＜0.001）。1972—2021年启东市劳动力人口中，ASMRW前5位分别是肝癌、肺癌、胃癌、女性乳腺癌及结直肠癌，占劳动力人口所有恶性肿瘤死亡人数的78.21%，ASMRW分别为55.43/10万、16.24/10万、13.62/10万、6.49/10万和4.59/10万。50年间，肺癌、脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤ASMRW均呈明显上升趋势，AAPC分别为0.33%、0.66%（P均<0.05）；肝癌、胃癌、食管癌ASMRW呈明显下降趋势，AAPC分别为-2.34%、-3.06%和-3.10%（P均<0.05）。预测至2031年男性、女性及总体ASMRW将分别下降至43.78/10万、37.59/10万、40.55/10万。［结论］ 50年间启东市劳动力人口恶性肿瘤标化死亡率显著下降，未来应重点加强肝癌、肺癌、胃癌、女性乳腺癌和结直肠癌的综合防控，以进一步降低劳动力人口恶性肿瘤死亡率，为保障社会生产力作出更大贡献。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the trend of mortality of malignant tumors in the working-age population (15~64 years old) in Qidong City from 1972 to 2021， and project the mortality from 2022 to 2031. ［Methods］ Based on cancer mortality data and annual population statistics of the working-age population in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021， we calculated the crude mortality rate(CR)， age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC)， and by world standard population(ASMRW). The Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.9.1.0) was used to analyze the annual percentage change(APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) for CR， ASMRC， and ASMRW. The ARIMA model in SAS 9.2 was employed to project the ASMRW trend for the next decade. ［Results］ From 1972 to 2021， there were 53 846 cancer deaths in the working-age population of Qidong City. The AAPCs for CR， ASMRC， and ASMRW were 0.31%， -1.65%， and -1.52% (all P<0.05)， respectively. Among them， 36 600 were men and 17 246 were women， with AAPCs of ASMRW being -1.79% and -1.07% (both P<0.001)， respectively. Mortality rates increased with age. The AAPCs for the age groups of 15~24， 25~34， 35~44， 45~54， and 55~64 years old were -1.38%， -3.00%， -1.85%， -1.29%， and -0.99% (all P<0.001)， respectively. During the 50-year period， the top five cancers by ASMRW were liver cancer， lung cancer， gastric cancer， female breast cancer， and colorectal cancer， accounting for 78.21% of all cancer deaths， with ASMRWs of 55.43/105， 16.24/105， 13.62/105， 6.49/105， and 4.59/105， respectively. The ASMRW of lung cancer and brain & nervous system tumors showed significant upward trends， with AAPCs of 0.33% and 0.66% (both P<0.05)， respectively. In contrast， the ASMRWs of liver cancer， gastric cancer， and esophageal cancer declined significantly， with AAPCs of -2.34%， -3.06%， and -3.10% (all P<0.05)， respectively. The projected ASMRWs for male， female， and the total population in 2031 are 43.78/105， 37.59/105， and 40.55/105， respectively. ［Conclusion］ Over the past five decades， the age-standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in the working-age population of Qidong City has decreased significantly. Future efforts should prioritize comprehensive prevention and control of liver cancer， lung cancer， gastric cancer， female breast cancer， and colorectal cancer to further reduce cancer mortality in this population， thereby contributing to the preservation of social productivity. |
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