| 曹世钰,邹艳花,肖海帆,等.2012—2021年湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病趋势及发病年龄特征分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(6):459-466. |
| 2012—2021年湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病趋势及发病年龄特征分析 |
| Analysis of Incidence Trends and Age Characteristics of Thyroid Cancer in Hunan Cancer Registration Areas from 2012 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-18 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.06.A005 |
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| 中文关键词: 肿瘤登记 甲状腺癌 发病率 年度变化百分比 湖南 |
| 英文关键词:cancer registration thyroid cancer incidence rate annual percentage change Hunan |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2012—2021年湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病趋势及发病年龄特征。［方法］ 本研究收集湖南省肿瘤登记地区2012—2021年的甲状腺癌发病数据，计算分年度甲状腺癌的粗发病率和中国人口标化发病率（简称中标发病率）。运用Joinpoint回归模型分析甲状腺癌中标发病率的时间变化趋势，计算中标发病率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）。采用Python绘制折线图及热力图，探究甲状腺癌发病年龄分布特征。［结果］ 2012—2021年间，湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌中标发病率整体呈显著上升趋势，AAPC为27.2% （95%CI：24.7%~29.6%），其中2015—2019年、2019—2021年呈显著上升趋势，APC分别为47.7% （95%CI：42.0%~60.0%）、19.9% （95%CI：8.4%~32.0%）。进一步分析发现，不同性别、地区甲状腺癌中标发病率均呈现上升趋势，女性甲状腺癌中标发病率总体高于男性，城市总体高于农村。2021年湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病年龄分布呈“先升后降”的单峰模式，男女性及城乡人群峰值均集中于40~44岁年龄组。2012—2021年甲状腺癌发病呈“年龄前移”特征。［结论］ 2012—2021年湖南省肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌发病率呈持续上升趋势，女性发病率高于男性，城市地区发病率高于农村地区，高发年龄段有年轻化、集中化趋势，中年人群是甲状腺癌的发病高峰群体。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence trends and age-specific characteristics of thyroid cancer in Hunan cancer registration areas from 2012 to 2021. ［Methods］ Incidence data of thyroid cancer from 2012 to 2021 were collected from Hunan cancer registration areas. Crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC) were analyzed. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in the ASIRC of thyroid cancer， and the annual percentage change (APC)， average annual percentage change (AAPC)， and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Line charts and heatmaps were generated using Python to explore age distribution characteristics. ［Results］ Between 2012 and 2021， the ASIRC of thyroid cancer in Hunan cancer registration areas showed a significant overall upward trend (AAPC=27.2%， 95%CI： 24.7%~29.6%). Joinpoint regression divided the overall trend into three segments with joinpoints at 2015 and 2019： no significant change from 2012 to 2015； a significantly accelerated increase from 2015 to 2019 (APC=47.7%， 95%CI： 42.0%~60.0%)； and a significant but slower increase from 2019 to 2021 (APC=19.9%， 95%CI： 8.4%~32.0%). Further analysis revealed rising ASIRC across all genders and regions， with higher rates in female than in male and in urban areas than in rural areas. In 2021， the age-specific incidence curve showed a unimodal pattern (rise then fall)， with the peak for both sexes and urban/rural populations concentrated in the age group of 40~44 years old. Age-specific incidence rates from 2012 to 2021 indicated a tendency toward younger age at onset (age shift to earlier ages). ［Conclusion］ The incidence of thyroid cancer in Hunan cancer registration areas continuously increased during 2012—2021. Incidence was higher in female than in male and higher in urban areas than in rural areas. The high-risk age groups showed a trend toward younger and more concentrated ages， with middle-aged adults constituting the peak incidence group. |
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