| 温晓岚,钟 涛,贺宇彤,等.2020—2030年京津冀地区人群恶性肿瘤归因风险变迁分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(6):440-449. |
| 2020—2030年京津冀地区人群恶性肿瘤归因风险变迁分析 |
| Trend Analysis of Population Attributable Risk of Cancer Among Adults in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2020 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2026-04-16 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.06.A003 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 可干预危险因素 人群归因分值 代谢 感染 行为 膳食 吸烟 肺癌 京津冀地区 |
| 英文关键词:cancer modifiable risk factors population attributable fraction metabolism infection behavior diet smoking lung cancer Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region |
| 基金项目:首都卫生发展专项（2024-2G-40213）；北京市高层次创新创业人才支持计划（202504841003）；中央高水平医院临床科研专项（2025-LYZX-R-A03）；国家自然科学基金（82273704） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 0 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 估算并比较2020年和2030年京津冀地区20岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤负担及归因负担，识别主要危险因素及前10位恶性肿瘤归因特征，为区域恶性肿瘤精准防控提供科学依据。［方法］ 基于国家肿瘤登记处数据和第七次全国人口普查资料，估算2020年京津冀地区恶性肿瘤发病和死亡负担，并结合2010—2020年各年度通过质量审核的所有肿瘤登记处数据，采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2030年负担水平。基于2013—2023年中国疾病预防控制中心监测资料及高质量Meta分析中获取的危险因素暴露率和全国性队列研究中获取的相对风险（relative risk，RR）值，采用Levin法计算恶性肿瘤人群归因分值（population attributable fraction，PAF）及归因病例数。［结果］ 京津冀地区20岁及以上人群中，2020年与2030年恶性肿瘤世标发病率基本持平，世标死亡率呈下降趋势。2020年，34.28%的恶性肿瘤新发病例（102 134例）和38.81%的死亡病例（65 517例）可归因于14种可干预危险因素；预计2030年发病（PAF：37.42%；归因病例数：129 828例）和死亡（PAF：43.48%；归因病例数：79 547例）归因负担有所增加。与2020年相比，2030年感染相关危险因素所致恶性肿瘤PAF下降，而行为、代谢和膳食相关危险因素PAF上升，其中代谢相关危险因素增幅最大。吸烟仍是导致恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的首位危险因素，肺癌为归因病例数最多的癌种。［结论］ 京津冀地区20岁及以上人群恶性肿瘤可归因负担预计在2030年较2020年进一步增加。未来恶性肿瘤防控应在持续推进控烟工作的基础上，将体重过高、糖尿病等危险因素作为重要干预方向。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze trends of the cancer burden and its attributable burden among adults aged 20 years and older in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2020 to 2030. ［Methods］ Cancer incidence and mortality in the region in 2020 were estimated using data from the National Cancer Registry of China and the Seventh National Population Census. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the cancer burden in 2030 based on data from all quality-as sured cancer registries from 2010 to 2020. Prevalence of risk factor exposure was derived from surveillance data of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention （2013—2023） and high-quality meta-analyses， while relative risks were obtained from national cohort studies. The Levin formula was used to calculate the population attributable fraction （PAF） and the number of attributable cancer cases. ［Results］ Among the population aged 20 years and older in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region， the age-standardized incidence rate of cancer remained generally stable between 2020 and 2030， whereas the age-standardized mortality rate showed a declining trend. In 2020， 34.28% of new cancer cases（n=102 134） and 38.81% of cancer deaths （n=65 517） were attributable to 14 modifiable risk factors. By 2030， the attributable burden was projected to increase， with PAFs of 37.42% for incidence （129 828 cases） and 43.48% for mortality （79 547 cases）. Compared with 2020， the PAF for infection-related risk factors was projected to decline by 2030， whereas PAFs for behavioral， metabolic， and dietary risk factors were projected to increase， with the largest increase observed for metabolic factors. Smoking remained the leading risk factor for both cancer incidence and mortality， and lung cancer continued to account for the largest number of attributable cases. ［Conclusion］ The attributable burden of cancer among adults aged 20 years and older in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is projected to increase further in 2030 compared with 2020. Future cancer prevention and control efforts should maintain strong tobacco control while prioritizing metabolic risk factors such as overweight/obesity and diabetes. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |