| 苏惠燕,朱世权.全球宫颈癌终生罹患风险特征分析—基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(6):433-439. |
| 全球宫颈癌终生罹患风险特征分析—基于GLOBOCAN 2022数据库 |
| Characteristics of Lifetime Risk of Global Cervical Cancer： a GLOBOCAN 2022-Based Analysis |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-16 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.06.A002 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 宫颈癌 终生罹患风险 GLOBOCAN 2022 多原发癌校正法 |
| 英文关键词:cervical cancer lifetime risk GLOBOCAN 2022 adjusted for multiple primaries |
| 基金项目: |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 0 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 采用多原发癌校正法（adjusted for multiple primaries，AMP）估算全球185个国家和地区宫颈癌终生罹患风险。［方法］ 从GLOBOCAN 2022数据库提取185个国家和地区宫颈癌分年龄组发病数据，结合联合国人口及全因死亡数据，采用AMP方法计算终生罹患风险。按人类发展指数（human development index，HDI）类别和20个地理区域进行分层分析，计算不同年龄段（出生、40岁、50岁、60岁、70岁起）的剩余终生罹患风险及60岁后风险占终生风险比例。采用Pearson相关系数评估终生罹患风险与HDI的关联。［结果］ 2022年全球宫颈癌终生罹患风险为1.53%（95%CI：1.52%~1.53%），各国风险范围为0.19%~7.59%。按HDI分层，中等HDI国家和地区风险最高（2.09%），其次为低HDI（1.82%）、高HDI（1.64%）和极高HDI（0.98%）国家和地区。地理区域分析显示，东非风险最高（3.94%），西亚最低（0.51%）。不同起始年龄的剩余终生罹患风险随起始年龄增大而降低，从出生的1.53%降至70岁起的0.38%。全球60岁后风险占终生风险的46.41%，该比例在中等HDI地区最高（54.07%），极高HDI地区最低（37.76%）；地理区域中北非最高（65.48%），北欧最低（32.53%）。175个国家和地区终生罹患风险与HDI呈负相关（r=-0.46，P<0.05），拟合曲线呈“倒U型”分布。预期寿命小于或等于74岁国家和地区的终生罹患风险略低于或接近累积风险，而预期寿命大于74岁国家和地区的终生罹患风险普遍高于累积风险。［结论］ 全球宫颈癌终生罹患风险存在显著的地区和发展水平差异，中等HDI国家和地区面临较高的疾病负担。不同发展水平地区60岁后风险占比的显著差异，可为各国各地区优化宫颈癌防控资源配置和确定重点人群提供流行病学参考依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To estimate the lifetime risk of developing cervical cancer across 185 countries and regions worldwide using the adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP) method. ［Methods］ Age-specific cervical cancer incidence data from 185 countries and regions were extracted from the GLOBOCAN 2022 database and combined with population and all-cause mortality data from the United Nations. The AMP method was applied to calculate lifetime risk. Stratified analyses were conducted by human development index(HDI) category and 20 geographic regions. Risks from different starting ages (at birth， 40， 50， 60， and 70 years old) and the proportion of risk after age 60 relative to lifetime risk were calculated. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to assess the association between lifetime risk and HDI. ［Results］ The global lifetime risk of developing cervical cancer in 2022 was 1.53% (95%CI： 1.52%~1.53%)， ranging from 0.19% to 7.59% across countries. By HDI stratification， medium HDI countries and regions had the highest risk (2.09%)， followed by low HDI (1.82%)， high HDI (1.64%)， and very high HDI countries and regions (0.98%). Geographic analysis revealed that Eastern Africa had the highest risk (3.94%)， while Western Asia had the lowest (0.51%). The remaining lifetime risk decreased with advancing starting age， from 1.53% at birth to 0.38% from age 70. Globally， the risk after age 60 accounted for 46.41% of the lifetime risk； this proportion was the highest in medium HDI regions (54.07%) and lowest in very high HDI regions (37.76%). Among geographic regions， Northern Africa had the highest proportion (65.48%) and Northern Europe the lowest (32.53%). Lifetime risk was negatively correlated with HDI across 175 countries and regions (r =-0.46， P<0.05)， with the fitted curve showing an inverted U-shaped distribution. In countries with life expectancy ≤ 74 years old， lifetime risk was slightly lower than or close to cumulative risk， whereas in countries with life expectancy >74 years old，lifetime risk generally exceeded cumulative risk. ［Conclusion］ Significant regional and developmental disparities exist in the global lifetime risk of cervical cancer， with medium HDI countries facing a higher disease burden. The marked differences in the proportion of risk after age 60 across regions of different development levels may provide epidemiological references for countries to optimize resource allocation and identify priority populations for cervical cancer prevention and control. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |