| 段雯华,王 梅,李 贵,等.2014—2023年山东省济宁市泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤发病和死亡趋势及生存分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(5):377-387. |
| 2014—2023年山东省济宁市泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤发病和死亡趋势及生存分析 |
| Trends in Incidence and Mortality and Survival Analysis of Common Urological Malignancies in Jining City，Shandong Province，2014—2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-25 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.05.A006 |
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| 中文关键词: 肾癌 膀胱癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 生存分析 山东 |
| 英文关键词:kidney cancer bladder cancer incidence mortality trend survival analysis Shandong |
| 基金项目:中华预防医学会老年健康体检队列和重大慢病专病数据库建设与应用研究项目（JKCLPJ202502002） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析山东省济宁市 2014—2023 年泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤（肾癌和膀胱癌）发病、死亡变化趋势及不同诊断时期患者的生存状况。［方法］ 数据来源于山东省肿瘤登记报告系统，提取济宁市 2014—2023 年肾癌和膀胱癌发病、死亡相关数据。采用 SAS 9.4 软件计算两种恶性肿瘤的粗发病率、粗死亡率、中国人口标化发病率（简称中标发病率）、中国人口标化死亡率（简称中标死亡率）；应用 Joinpoint 线性回归模型分析 2014—2023 年肾癌、膀胱癌发病率与死亡率的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及 95% 置信区间（confidence interval，CI）；采用队列法与时期生存分析法分别计算并比较不同诊断时期（2014—2018 年与 2019—2023 年）的 5 年相对生存率。［结果］ 2014—2023年山东省济宁市肾癌平均粗发病率为4.21/10万，中标发病率为2.90/10万，肾癌粗发病率与中标发病率均呈显著上升趋势，AAPC分别为10.1%和7.0%（P均<0.001）；膀胱癌平均粗发病率为4.78/10万，中标发病率为2.83/10万，膀胱癌粗发病率呈显著上升趋势（AAPC=6.9%，P<0.001），中标发病率增幅较小（AAPC=2.8%，P=0.035）。死亡率方面，肾癌与膀胱癌的粗死亡率均呈显著上升趋势（AAPC分别为8.7%和7.3%，P均<0.05），但经年龄标化后，两者的中标死亡率变化均无统计学意义（P均>0.05）。同时，两种恶性肿瘤患者的生存状况均得到明显改善，肾癌患者5年相对生存率从2014—2018年的69.63%提升至2019—2023年的73.66%，膀胱癌患者5年相对生存率从66.44%显著提升至75.28%。［结论］ 2014—2023年济宁市泌尿系统常见恶性肿瘤（肾癌与膀胱癌）发病率持续上升，但经年龄标化后死亡风险趋于稳定，同时两种恶性肿瘤的5年相对生存率均得到显著改善。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the trends in incidence and mortality of common malignant tumors of the urinary system(kidney cancer and bladder cancer) in Jining City， Shandong Province from 2014 to 2023， as well as the survival status of patients in different diagnostic periods. ［Methods］ The data were sourced from the Shandong Provincial Cancer Registration and Reporting System， from which the incidence and mortality data of kidney cancer and bladder cancer in Jining City from 2014 to 2023 were extracted. SAS 9.4 software was used to calculate the crude incidence rate， crude mortality rate， age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC)， and age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population (ASMRC) of the two cancers. The Joinpoint linear regression model was applied to analyze the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of the incidence and mortality rates of kidney cancer and bladder cancer from 2014 to 2023. The cohort method and period survival analysis method were adopted to calculate and compare the 5-year relative survival rates in different diagnostic periods (2014—2018 vs 2019—2023). ［Results］ From 2014 to 2023， the average crude incidence rate of kidney cancer in Jining City， Shandong Province was 4.21/105， with ASIRC of 2.90/105. Both the crude and ASIRC of kidney cancer showed a significant upward trend， with AAPC of 10.1% and 7.0%， respectively (both P<0.001). The average crude incidence rate of bladder cancer was 4.78/105， with ASIRC of 2.83/105. The crude incidence rate of bladder cancer presented a marked upward trend (AAPC=6.9%， P<0.001)， while the increase in ASIRC was relatively mild (AAPC=2.8%， P=0.035). For mortality， the crude mortality rates of both kidney cancer and bladder cancer increased significantly (AAPC=8.7% and 7.3%， respectively， both P<0.05)， whereas after age standardization， the changes in ASMRC of the two cancers had no statistical significance (both P>0.05). Meanwhile， the survival status of patients with both cancers was significantly improved： the 5-year relative survival rate of kidney cancer patients rose from 69.63% during 2014—2018 to 73.66% during 2019—2023， and that of bladder cancer patients increased significantly from 66.44% to 75.28%. ［Conclusion］ From 2014 to 2023， the incidence of common malignant tumors of the urinary system (kidney cancer and bladder cancer) in Jining City has been continuously rising， while the age-standardized mortality risk has tended to be stable. Meanwhile， the 5-year relative survival rates of both cancers have achieved a significant improvement. |
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