| 姜欣彤,张 滢,游云开,等.1990—2023年中国老年人群气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及风险因素分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(5):354-362. |
| 1990—2023年中国老年人群气管、支气管和肺癌疾病负担及风险因素分析 |
| Analysis of the Disease Burden and Risk Factors for Tracheal， Bronchial， and Lung Cancer in the Chinese Elderly Population from 1990 to 202 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-08 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.05.A003 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 气管、支气管和肺癌 发病率 死亡率 疾病负担 风险因素 老年人 中国 |
| 英文关键词:tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer incidence mortality disease burden risk factors elderly people China |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（81772281）；山东省自然科学基金（ZR2024MH228）；烟台市科技创新发展计划（2024JCYJ058） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 0 |
| 全文下载次数: 0 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 基于2023年全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease，GBD）数据库，分析1990—2023年中国老年人群气管、支气管和肺癌（tracheal，bronchus，and lung cancer，TBL）的发病和死亡负担及其风险因素。［方法］ 基于GBD 2023数据，参考中国第七次人口普查的标准人口构成，对60岁及以上老年人群TBL的年龄标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate，ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（age-standardized mortality rate，ASMR）进行估算，采用Joinpoint回归分析其时间变化趋势；按性别和年龄分组分析发病和死亡例数占比，采用分解分析探讨人口老龄化、人口增长及流行病学变化对疾病负担的影响，结合伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life years，DALYs）分析TBL的归因风险因素。［结果］ 与1990年相比，中国老年人群总体和女性TBL的ASIR呈增长趋势，平均每年分别增长0.42%和0.30%；中国男性TBL的ASMR呈下降趋势，平均每年下降0.23%（P<0.05）。男性和女性的发病与死亡高峰均集中在70~74岁年龄组，人口增长是中国老年人群TBL发病例数和死亡例数增加的主要影响因素。2023年对中国老年人群TBL相关DALYs的归因风险分析显示，女性前3位风险因素依次为颗粒物污染、吸烟、二手烟，男性前3位风险因素依次为吸烟、颗粒物污染、职业风险，总体风险因素依次为吸烟、颗粒物污染、二手烟、职业风险、空腹血糖升高、水果摄入不足和住宅氡暴露。［结论］ 1990—2023年中国老年人群TBL疾病负担依然严峻，吸烟是男性首要风险因素，颗粒物污染是女性首要风险因素；二手烟的风险贡献度排名近年显著上升，职业风险的影响有所降低，不同性别的风险因素排名存在明显差异，需针对不同性别重点开展吸烟、颗粒物污染、二手烟等风险因素的精准防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality burden， as well as the attributable risk factors of tracheal， bronchus， and lung cancer (TBL) in the Chinese elderly population from 1990 to 2023. ［Methods］ Based on the database of the Global Burden of Disease 2023 (GBD 2023)， the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of TBL in the elderly population aged 60 years old and above were estimated with reference to the standard population composition of the seventh national census of China. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the temporal trends of the above indicators. The proportion of incidence and mortality cases was analyzed by sex and age groups， decomposition analysis was performed to explore the impacts of population aging， population growth and epidemiological changes on disease burden， and the attributable risk factors of TBL were analyzed in combination with disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). ［Results］ Compared with 1990， the overall ASIR of TBL in the Chinese elderly population and the ASIR in female elderly showed an upward trend， with average annual increase of 0.42% and 0.30%， respectively； the ASMR in male elderly showed a downward trend， with an average annual decrease of 0.23% (P<0.05). The peak incidence and mortality of TBL in both male and female elderly were concentrated in the age group of 70~74 years old， and population growth was the primary driver for the increase in TBL incidence and mortality cases among the Chinese elderly population. In 2023， attribution analysis based on TBL-related DALYs showed that the top 3 risk factors for female elderly were particulate matter pollution， smoking and second-hand smoke in sequence； the top 3 risk factors for male elderly were smoking， particulate matter pollution and occupational risks in sequence； the overall ranking of risk factors for the total population was smoking， particulate matter pollution， second-hand smoke， occupational risks， high fasting blood glucose， insufficient fruit intake and residential radon exposure. ［Conclusion］ The disease burden of TBL in the Chinese elderly population remains severe from 1990 to 2023. Smoking is the primary risk factor for male elderly， while particulate matter pollution is the primary risk factor for female elderly. The ranking of the contribution of second-hand smoke to disease burden has increased significantly in recent years， while the impact of occupational risks has decreased. There are obvious differences in the ranking of risk factors between different genders， and targeted prevention and control of key risk factors such as smoking， particulate matter pollution and second-hand smoke should be carried out for different sexes. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |