| 史发林,张雁山,秦天燕,等.2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌流行特征及2023—2032年发病与死亡预测分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(4):284-292. |
| 2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌流行特征及2023—2032年发病与死亡预测分析 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Esophageal Cancer in Wuwei City of Gansu Province in 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2032 |
| 投稿时间：2025-11-17 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.04.A005 |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 甘肃 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal cancer incidence mortality trends prediction Gansu |
| 基金项目:武威市青年科技人才专项（WW25A01RQNK010） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌流行特征及2010—2022年变化趋势，并预测2023—2032年食管癌发病和死亡情况。［方法］ 选取2010—2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记处提供的食管癌发病、死亡数据以及当地的人口数据资料。按照性别、年龄和地区分层，分别计算武威市食管癌的粗发病（死亡）率、年龄别发病（死亡）率、不同地区发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）和世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称世标率）。运用Joinpoint 5.1.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），分析食管癌2010—2022年发病和死亡变化趋势。通过R 4.5.1软件构建灰色GM（1，1）预测模型，预测2023—2032年食管癌发病率和死亡率。［结果］ 2022年甘肃省武威市食管癌粗发病率为19.05/10万，中标率为10.32/10万，世标率为11.69/10万；食管癌粗死亡率为15.72/10万，中标率为8.37/10万，世标率为9.81/10万。男性中标发病率和死亡率分别是女性的2.60倍和3.02倍，年龄别发病率和死亡率均在50岁以上呈上升趋势，75~79岁组达到高峰。2010—2022年武威市食管癌中标发病率和死亡率总体呈下降趋势（AAPC分别为-10.54%和-11.97%，P均＜0.05）。灰色GM（1，1）模型预测结果显示，预计到2032年武威市食管癌中标发病率和死亡率分别为4.29/10万和2.76/10万。［结论］ 武威市食管癌发病（死亡）率仍然高于全球和全国水平，武威市食管癌疾病负担依然很重。未来应重点关注食管癌高危人群，持续推进做好食管癌防控工作。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City of Gansu Province in 2022； examine its trends from 2010 to 2022 and predict the incidence and mortality rates from 2023 to 2032. ［Methods］ Data on esophageal cancer incidence and mortality (2010—2022) and corresponding population statistics were obtained from the Wuwei City Cancer Registry. Crude， age-specific， regional incidence and mortality rates， age-standardized rates by Chinese (ASIRC， ASMRC) and world standard populations (ASIRW， ASMRW) were calculated. Trends from 2010 to 2022 were analyzed using Joinpoint Regression Software (version 5.1.0) to compute the average annual percentage change (AAPC). A grey GM(1， 1) prediction model was constructed using R software (version 4.5.1) to forecast incidence and mortality rates from 2023 to 2032. ［Results］ In 2022， the crude incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City were 19.05/105 and 15.72/105， respectively. The ASIRC and ASIRW were 10.32/105 and 11.69/105， and the ASMRC and ASMRW were 8.37/105 and 9.81/105， respectively. The ASIRC and ASMRC in male were 2.60 and 3.02 times those in female. Age-specific rates increased with age， peaking at the age group of 75~79 years old. From 2010 to 2022， ASIRC and ASMRC showed significant declining trends， with AAPCs of -10.54% and -11.97% (both P<0.05). The grey GM(1， 1) model predicted that by 2032， the ASIRC and ASMRC rates would decrease to 4.29/105 and 2.76/105， respectively. ［Conclusion］ The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Wuwei City remain higher than both global and national averages， indicating a substantial persistent disease burden. Future efforts should prioritize high-risk populations and strengthen prevention and control measures. |
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