| 陈雪莲,徐中山,叶延程,等.2022年甘肃省武威市胃癌流行特征及2023—2032年发病与死亡预测分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(4):277-283. |
| 2022年甘肃省武威市胃癌流行特征及2023—2032年发病与死亡预测分析 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Gastric Cancer in Wuwei City of Gansu Province in 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2032 |
| 投稿时间：2025-12-02 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.04.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 胃癌 流行特征 变化趋势 预测 甘肃 |
| 英文关键词:gastric cancer epidemiological characteristics trend prediction Gansu |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2022年甘肃省武威市肿瘤登记地区胃癌流行特征及2011—2022年变化趋势，并预测其后10年发病和死亡。［方法］ 按全国肿瘤登记中心审核规范及评价准则，选取武威市三县一区各登记点上报的胃癌数据资料。分地区、性别、年龄别计算胃癌粗发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称世标率）、0~74岁累积率及构成。采用Joinpoint回归模型计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间（confidence interval，CI）来分析胃癌发病和死亡趋势。通过构建灰色模型GM（1，1）预测2023—2032年的发病率和死亡率。［结果］ 2022年甘肃省武威市胃癌发病粗率、中标率、世标率分别为56.46/10万、31.55/10万、34.94/10万。总人群胃癌发病率在40岁以前处于较低水平，40岁以后开始上升，75~79岁年龄组达到顶峰，80岁以后发病率下降；死亡粗率、中标率、世标率分别为40.29/10万、21.97/10万、25.20/10万。总人群胃癌死亡率在40岁以前处于较低水平，40岁以后开始上升，75~79岁年龄组达到顶峰。其中男性发病率和死亡率均高于女性。Joinpoint回归结果显示，2011—2022年武威市胃癌中标发病率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-5.71%，95%CI：-9.24%~-2.03%）；中标死亡率整体呈平稳变化的趋势（AAPC=-3.30%，95%CI：-10.76%~4.78%）。预测结果显示武威市胃癌中标发病率和死亡率均下降，其中2032年全人群胃癌中标发病率下降至12.48/10万，中标死亡率下降至5.69/10万。［结论］ 2022年武威市胃癌发病率和死亡率存在性别和城乡差异，2011—2022年间发病率呈现下降趋势，并且未来10年将呈现持续下降趋势。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of gastric cancer in the cancer registration areas of Wuwei City of Gansu Province in 2022， as well as the trends of incidence and mortality from 2011 to 2022， and to predict future trends from 2023 to 2032. ［Methods］ Gastric cancer data reported by registration sites in three counties and one district of Wuwei were evaluated in accordance with the review and evaluation criteria of the National Central Cancer Registry. Crude incidence (mortality) rates， age-standardized incidence(mortality) rates by Chinese and world standard populations(ASIRC/ASIRW， ASMRC/ASMRW)， cumulative rates (0~74 years old)， and composition ratio were calculated by region， sex， and age group. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculated the average annual percentage change(AAPC) and 95% confidence interval(CI)， and the grey model GM(1， 1) was used to predict future incidence and mortality. ［Results］ In 2022， the crude incidence rate， ASIRC and ASIRW of gastric cancer in Wuwei were 56.46/10５， 31.55/10５， and 34.94/10５， respectively. The incidence remained low before age 40， increased gradually in the age groups of 40~74 years old， peaked at the age group of 75~79 years old， and declined thereafter. The corresponding mortality rates were 40.29/10５， 21.97/10５， and 25.20/10５， with mortality rising after age 40 and peaking at the age group of 75~79 years old. Both incidence and mortality were significantly higher in male than those in female. Joinpoint regression indicated a declining trend in age-standardized incidence from 2011 to 2022 (AAPC=-5.71%， 95%CI：-9.24%~ -2.03%)， the mortality remained a stable trend(AAPC=-3.30%， 95%CI： -10.76%~4.78%). Predictions suggested that age-standardized incidence and mortality will continue to decline， with rates projected to fall to 12.48/10５ and 5.69/10５， respectively， by 2032. ［Conclusion］ In 2022， gastric cancer incidence and mortality in Wuwei varied by sex and residential area. From 2011 to 2022， incidence showed a downward trend， which is expected to continue over the next decade. |
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