| 王 军,陈永胜,丁璐璐,等.1972—2021年江苏省启东市青少年和年轻成人恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(3):218-228. |
| 1972—2021年江苏省启东市青少年和年轻成人恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析 |
| Incidence Trends of Malignant Tumors Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-08-15 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.03.A007 |
|
 |
| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 发病率 趋势 青少年和年轻成人 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor incidence trend adolescents and young adults Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:南通大学校级科研基金临床医学专项资助项目（2025LY047）；南通市科技局科研课题（MSZ2025123） |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 10 |
| 全文下载次数: 5 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析1972—2021年江苏省启东市青少年和年轻成人（adolescents and young adults，AYAs）恶性肿瘤发病情况。 ［方法］ 从启东市肿瘤登记报告系统中提取发病时间为1972年1月1日至2021年12月31日、年龄为15~39岁人群的恶性肿瘤发病资料，计算粗发病率（crude incidence rate，CR）、中国人口标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population，ASIRC）和世界人口标准化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population，ASIRW）。采用Joinpoint 5.0.2分析发病率的年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。 ［结果］ 1972—2021年启东市AYAs恶性肿瘤共计发病11 051例（男性6 764例，女性4 287例），CR为53.26/10万（男性65.52/10万，女性41.12/10万），ASIRC为41.72/10万（男性66.89/10万，女性41.72/10万），ASIRW为46.58/10万（男性57.18/10万，女性36.13/10万）。趋势分析结果显示，1972—2013年ASIRW呈下降趋势（APC=-1.53%，t=-11.49，P<0.001），而2013—2021年呈上升趋势（APC=9.39%，t=4.92，P<0.001）。发病率随着年龄的增长而上升，各年龄组时间趋势分段显示除35~39岁年龄组2007—2013年外，其余均呈先降后升趋势（P均<0.05）。其中30~34岁和35~39岁年龄组发病率在近10年增幅最大，APC分别为14.23%（t=3.17，P=0.003）和11.38%（t=4.10，P=0.002）。50年来启东市AYAs的发病癌谱发生了较大的变化，期初1972—1976年前5位恶性肿瘤依次为肝癌、女性乳腺癌、胃癌、白血病和结直肠癌，期末2017—2021年前5位依次为甲状腺癌、女性乳腺癌、宫颈癌、白血病和肺癌。主要恶性肿瘤中，肝癌ASIRW呈下降趋势（AAPC=-3.62%，t=-5.56，P<0.001），甲状腺癌ASIRW上升幅度最大（AAPC=10.87%，t=5.01，P<0.001），女性乳腺癌、宫颈癌、白血病、肺癌和脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤均呈上升趋势。 ［结论］ 50年来启东市AYAs人群恶性肿瘤ASIRW以2013年为界，呈先降后升趋势。甲状腺癌、女性乳腺癌、宫颈癌、白血病和肺癌是当前主要癌种且疾病负担日益加重。未来防控策略应重点关注30~39岁人群，并针对主要癌种制定应对措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence trends of malignant tumors among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province from 1972 to 2021. ［Methods］ Data on malignant tumors diagnosed among individuals aged 15~39 years between January 1， 1972 and December 31， 2021， were extracted from the Qidong Cancer Registry. We calculated the crude incidence rate (CR)， age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC)， and by world standard population (ASIRW). The Joinpoint regression software (version 5.0.2) was used to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence trends. ［Results］ From 1972 to 2021， a total of 11 051 malignant tumors were diagnosed among AYAs in Qidong (6 764 for male， 4 287 for female). The overall CR was 53.26 /105 (male： 65.52/105； female： 41.12/105). The ASIRC was 41.72/105 (male： 66.89/105， female： 41.72/105)， and the ASIRW was 46.58/105 (male： 57.18/105， female： 36.13/105). Trend analysis revealed that the overall ASIRW displayed a significant decline from 1972 to 2013 (APC=-1.53%， t=-11.49，P<0.001)， followed by a sharp increase from 2013 to 2021 (APC=9.39%， t=4.92， P<0.001). Incidence increased with age. Except for the age group of 35~39 years old during 2007—2013， all age groups exhibited a pattern of initial decline followed by a recent rise (all P<0.05). The most pronounced increases in the past decade were observed in the age groups of 30~34 and 35~39 years old， with APCs of 14.23% (t=3.17， P=0.003) and 11.38% (t=4.10， P=0.002)， respectively. The cancer spectrum changed substantially over the 50-year period. During 1972—1976， the top five malignancies were liver cancer， female breast cancer， stomach cancer， leukemia， and colorectal cancer. During 2017—2021， the leading cancers were thyroid cancer， female breast cancer， cervical cancer， leukemia， and lung cancer. Among major cancer types， the ASIRW of liver cancer showed a declining trend (AAPC=-3.62%， t=-5.56， P<0.001)， while thyroid cancer increased most markedly (AAPC=10.87%， t=5.01， P<0.001). Significant upward trends were also observed for female breast cancer， cervical cancer， leukemia， lung cancer， and tumors of the brain and central nervous system. ［Conclusion］ Over the past 50 years， the ASIRW of malignant tumors among AYAs in Qidong City showed an initial decline followed by a rise after 2013. Thyroid cancer， female breast cancer， cervical cancer， leukemia， and lung cancer are now the predominant and increasingly burdensome malignancies. Future prevention and control strategies should prioritize individuals aged 30~39 years old and implement targeted measures against these key cancer types. |
|
在线阅读
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |