| 赵欢欢,陆 艳,王临池,等.2012—2023年江苏省苏州市恶性肿瘤生存分析[J].中国肿瘤,2026,35(1):55-62. |
| 2012—2023年江苏省苏州市恶性肿瘤生存分析 |
| Survival Analysis of Malignant Tumors in Suzhou City， Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2023 |
| 投稿时间：2025-07-18 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2026.01.A008 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 相对生存率 生存分析 江苏 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumors relative survival rate survival analysis Jiangsu |
| 基金项目:江苏省老年健康科研项目（LKM2023038）；2023年度江苏省卫生健康委员会预防医学及血地寄防科研课题（Ym2023017） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2012—2023年江苏省苏州市恶性肿瘤患者的生存状况。［方法］ 收集苏州市2012—2022 年户籍居民新发恶性肿瘤病例，随访终点为2023年12月31日。采用队列法计算2012—2014年、2015—2017年恶性肿瘤5年相对生存率，现时法计算2018—2020 年生存率，杂交法预测2021—2023年生存率；通过Ederer Ⅱ方法估算期望生存率，依据国际癌症生存标准权重对相对生存率进行年龄标准化。［结果］ 共有304 449 例恶性肿瘤病例纳入生存分析，2012—2014年、2015—2017 年、2018—2020 年、2021—2023 年苏州市恶性肿瘤标化5年相对生存率分别为 42.2%、47.7%、50.0%、53.2%，总体呈显著上升趋势（P=0.018）。女性各时期标化5年相对生存率均高于男性，2021—2023 年男女性分别为 46.9%、59.8%；75岁及以上人群 2021—2023年标化5年相对生存率仅27.2%，较0~44岁人群（88.3%）低61.1个百分点。不同癌症类型标化5年相对生存率存在较大差异，2021—2023年生存率前4位癌种依次为甲状腺癌（94.1%）、乳腺癌（84.8%）、膀胱癌（78.1%）、宫颈癌（76.7%），后4位为胰腺癌（10.8%）、肝癌（17.3%）、胆囊癌（22.6%）、食管癌（29.4%）。［结论］ 苏州市2012—2023年恶性肿瘤5年生存率稳步上升，需重点关注男性、老年人群及预后差癌种的防控。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the survival status of patients with malignant tumors in Suzhou， Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2023. ［Methods］ Newly diagnosed cases of malignant tumors among registered residents of Suzhou from 2012 to 2022 were collected， with the follow-up endpoint set as December 31st， 2023. The cohort method was used to calculate the 5-year relative survival rates of malignant tumors for the periods 2012—2014 and 2015—2017； the period method was applied to calculate the survival rate for 2018—2020； and the hybrid method was used to predict the survival rate for 2021—2023. The Ederer Ⅱ method was adopted to estimate the expected survival rate， and age-standardization of the relative survival rate was performed based on the weights specified in the International Cancer Survival Standards. ［Results］ A total of 304 449 cases of malignant tumors were included in the survival analysis. The age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates (ARSRs) of malignant tumors in Suzhou for 2012—2014， 2015—2017， 2018—2020， and 2021—2023 were 42.2%， 47.7%， 50.0%， and 53.2%， respectively， showing an overall significant upward trend (P=0.018). The 5-year ARSRs of female were higher than those of male in all periods： during 2021—2023， the rates were 46.9% for male and 59.8% for female. For the population aged ≥75 years old， the 5-year ARSR during 2021—2023 was only 27.2%， which was 61.1 percentage points lower than that of the age group of 0~44 years old (88.3%). There were significant differences in the age-standardized 5-year relative survival rates across different cancer types. During 2021—2023， the top 4 malignant tumors with the highest survival rates were thyroid cancer (94.1%)， breast cancer (84.8%)， bladder cancer (78.1%)， and cervical cancer (76.7%)； the bottom 4 were pancreatic cancer (10.8%)， liver cancer (17.3%)， gallbladder cancer (22.6%)， and esophageal cancer (29.4%). ［Conclusion］ The 5-year survival rate of malignant tumors in Suzhou increased steadily from 2012 to 2023. Priority should be given to the prevention and control of malignant tumors in male， the elderly population， and cancers with poor prognosis. |
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