| 段雯华,王 梅,姜 帆,等.2014—2023年山东省济宁市食管癌发病和死亡趋势分析及2024—2030年预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(12):963-971. |
| 2014—2023年山东省济宁市食管癌发病和死亡趋势分析及2024—2030年预测 |
| Trends of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Jining City， Shandong Province from 2014 to 2023 and Prediction from 2024 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2025-01-02 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.12.A008 |
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| 中文关键词: 食管癌 发病率 死亡率 变化趋势 预测 山东 |
| 英文关键词:esophageal cancer incidence mortality trend prediction Shandong |
| 基金项目:山东省医药卫生科技发展计划（202412051228）；山东省医务职工科技创新计划（SDYWZGKCJHLH2023083）；济宁市重点研发计划（2023YXNS173） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要： ［目的］ 分析2014—2023年济宁市食管癌发病率和死亡率的变化趋势，并预测2024—2030年趋势。［方法］ 2014—2023年济宁市食管癌发病和死亡数据来源于山东省肿瘤登记系统，按性别、年龄和城乡分层，分别计算不同年份食管癌的粗发病（死亡）率、年龄别发病（死亡）率、标化发病（死亡）率等指标，标化率采用2000年全国普查标准人口年龄构成进行计算。应用Joinpoint软件计算发病率和死亡率的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。应用GM（1，1）灰色模型预测2024—2030年食管癌的发病和死亡趋势。［结果］ 2014—2023年济宁市食管癌标化发病率和标化死亡率均呈下降趋势，标化发病率从2014年的25.31/10万下降至2023年的12.75/10万（AAPC=-8.24%，P<0.001），标化死亡率从2014年的12.84/10万下降至2023年的9.10/10万（AAPC=-5.91%，P<0.001）。不同性别和城乡地区人群的标化发病率和标化死亡率也均呈下降趋势。男性发病和死亡水平均始终高于女性，农村地区发病和死亡水平均始终高于城市地区。40岁及以上各年龄组人群食管癌发病率均呈下降趋势，40~79岁各年龄组死亡率均呈下降趋势。从年龄分布来看，40岁以下年龄组食管癌的发病和死亡极少，绝大部分集中在60岁以上老年人。GM（1，1）灰色模型预测结果显示，2024—2030年食管癌标化发病率和标化死亡率将进一步下降，预计2030年食管癌标化发病率和标化死亡率将分别下降至6.00/10万和4.90/10万。［结论］ 2014—2023年济宁市食管癌发病率和死亡率总体呈持续下降趋势，预计至2030年将进一步降低。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining from 2014 to 2023 and predict the variation trends from 2024 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data on incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining from 2014 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registration System. The crude incidence/mortality rates， age-specific incidence/mortality rates， and age-standardized incidence/mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR) of esophageal cancer were calculated by sex， age and urban/rural regions. The age-standardized rate was based on the Chinese standard population in 2000. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality were calculated using Joinpoint software. The GM (1， 1) grey model was used to predict the trend of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030. ［Results］ From 2014 to 2023， The ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer in Jining decreased from 25.31/105 to 12.75/105 (AAPC=-8.24%， P<0.001) and from 12.84/105 to 9.10/105 (AAPC=-5.91%， P<0.001)， respectively. The ASIR and ASMR of male， female， urban and rural population also showed a downward trend. The incidence and mortality rates of men were higher than those of women， and incidence and mortality rates in rural areas were higher than those in urban areas. The incidence of esophageal cancer in groups of 40 years old and above showed a decreasing trend， and the mortality in age groups of 40~79 years old showed a decreasing trend. The incidence and mortality rates of esophageal cancer were significantly lower among individuals under the age of 40 years old， whereas the majority of cases were in the population aged 60 years old and above. The GM (1， 1) gray model projected that the ASIR and ASMR of esophageal cancer would further decrease from 2024 to 2030， being 6.00/105 and 4.90/105， respectively in 2030. ［Conclusion］ From 2014 to 2023， the incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer in Jining showed a continuous downward trend， and it is expected to further decrease by 2030. |
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