| 王 楠,马 霞,王子瑜,等.2014—2019年山东省济南市胰腺癌流行趋势及生存分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(12):946-953. |
| 2014—2019年山东省济南市胰腺癌流行趋势及生存分析 |
| Epidemic Trend and Survival Analysis of Pancreatic Cancer in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2014 to 2019 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-26 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.12.A006 |
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| 中文关键词: 胰腺癌 发病率 死亡率 生存率 变化趋势 山东 |
| 英文关键词:pancreatic cancer incidence mortality survival rate trend Shandong |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2014—2019年济南市胰腺癌发病与死亡流行特征、变化趋势及生存情况。［方法］ 整理2014—2019年肿瘤登记报告的济南市户籍居民的胰腺癌数据，计算胰腺癌的粗发病（死亡）率、中标发病（死亡）率、世标发病（死亡）率、0~74岁累积率、构成比等，用Joinpoint模型计算发病及死亡的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC），用Kaplan-Meier法计算生存时间，用Cox比例风险回归模型进行单因素及多因素分析。［结果］ 2014—2019年胰腺癌粗发病率为6.85/10万，中标、世标发病率分别为3.68/10万、4.17/10万，0~74岁累积率为0.42%；胰腺癌粗死亡率、中标死亡率、世标死亡率分别为5.42/10万、2.83/10万、3.27/10万，0~74岁累积率为0.31%。胰腺癌发病率和死亡率均为男性高于女性、城市高于农村。40岁之前发病率和死亡率均较低，40岁之后快速升高，80~84岁年龄组达到最高。2014—2019年济南市胰腺癌发病率整体平稳，男性粗发病率呈上升趋势，AAPC为2.77%；粗死亡率呈上升趋势，AAPC为4.23%，农村女性胰腺癌死亡率增长显著，粗死亡率和中标死亡率的AAPC分别为13.19%、12.67%（P均＜0.05）。2014—2019年胰腺癌患者的中位生存时间为0.55年，5年生存率为13.44%，城市高于农村（14.83% vs 10.40%），且随着年龄增长，生存率降低（P＜0.05）。［结论］2014—2019年济南市不同人群的胰腺癌发病、死亡情况存在差异，5年生存率较低。应重点关注胰腺癌发病和死亡的上升趋势，优化全人群防控策略，降低胰腺癌疾病负担。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics， change trend and survival of pancreatic cancer in Jinan City from 2014 to 2019. ［Methods］ The data of pancreatic cancer in Jinan from 2014 to 2019 were sorted out. The crude rates of incidence /mortality， age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese (ASIRC)， world standard population (ASIRW)， age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese (ASMRC)， world standard population (ASMRW)， cumulative rate of 0~74 years old and constituent ratio of pancreatic cancer were calculated. The average annual percentage change(AAPC) of incidence and mortality was calculated with the Joinpoint model. The survival time was calculated by Kaplan-Meier. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses.［Results］ From 2014 to 2019， the crude incidence rate， ASIRC and ASIRW of pancreatic cancer were 6.85/105， 3.68/105 and 4.17/105, respectively， and the cumulative rate of 0~74 years old was 0.42%. The crude mortality rate， ASMRC and ASMRW of pancreatic cancer were 5.42/105， 2.83/105 and 3.27/105， respectively， and the cumulative rate of 0~74 years old was 0.31%. The incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in male were higher than those in female， and higher in urban areas than those in rural areas. The incidence and mortality were low before the age of 40， and increased rapidly after the age of 40， reaching the highest in the age group of 80~84 years old. From 2014 to 2019， the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in Jinan City remained generally stable. The crude incidence rate in male showed an upward trend， with an AAPC of 2.77%. The crude mortality rate also presented an upward trend， with an AAPC of 4.23%. Notably， the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in rural female increased significantly. The AAPC values for the crude mortality rate and ASMRC were 13.19% and 12.67%, respectively(P<0.05). The median survival time of pancreatic cancer patients from 2014 to 2019 was 0.55 years， and the 5-year survival rate was 13.44%. The 5-year survival rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas (14.83% vs 10.40%). The survival rate of patients in the high-age group was lower than that in the low-age group (P<0.05). ［Conclusion］ From 2014 to 2019， there were differences in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer among different populations in Jinan City. The 5-year survival rate of pancreatic cancer was low. Priority should be given to monitoring the upward trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer， and optimizing prevention and control strategies for the entire population to reduce the disease burden of pancreatic cancer. |
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