| 亓爱玲,窦磊然,杨梦诗,等.2013—2022年山东省济南市结直肠癌发病与死亡分析及2023—2030年变化趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(12):931-937. |
| 2013—2022年山东省济南市结直肠癌发病与死亡分析及2023—2030年变化趋势预测 |
| Analysis of Incidence and Mortality of Colorectal Cancer in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-17 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.12.A004 |
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| 中文关键词: 结直肠癌 发病 死亡 趋势 预测 山东 |
| 英文关键词:colorectal cancer incidence mortality trend prediction Shandong |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2013—2022年山东省济南市结直肠癌发病和死亡的流行特征，并且预测2023—2030年变化趋势。［方法］ 从山东省慢性病监测信息系统收集2013—2022年济南市结直肠癌发病与死亡数据，按性别、年龄分层计算各年份粗发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）；采用Joinpoint 回归模型分析发病率与死亡率的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）；运用灰色模型GM（1，1）预测2023—2030年结直肠癌发病与死亡趋势。［结果］ 2013—2022年济南市结直肠癌年均粗发病率为33.20/10万（中标发病率为18.28/10万），年均粗死亡率为13.58/10万（中标死亡率为6.88/10万），中标发病率和死亡率城市地区均高于农村地区，男性均高于女性。中标发病率呈上升趋势（AAPC=3.43%，P＜0.05），中标死亡率变化趋势平稳，差异无统计学意义（AAPC=1.16%，P=0.10）。城市地区中标发病率和中标死亡率增长趋势（AAPC分别为3.67%、1.79%）均高于农村地区（AAPC分别为2.54%、-0.18%）。灰色模型GM（1，1）预测结果显示，2023—2030年结直肠癌粗发病率和粗死亡率均将呈上升趋势。［结论］ 2013—2022年济南市结直肠癌发病率呈显著上升趋势，死亡率趋于稳定；需针对不同地区、人群制定差异化防控策略，降低结直肠癌发病与死亡风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022， and predict the changing trends from 2023 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data on CRC incidence and mortality in Jinan from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the Shandong Chronic Disease Surveillance Information System. Crude incidence (mortality) rates and age-standardized incidence (mortality) rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC/ASMRC) were calculated by sex， age， and year. Joinpoint regression was applied to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality rates. The grey model GM(1， 1) was used to predict CRC incidence and mortality trends from 2023 to 2030. ［Results］ From 2013 to 2022， the average annual crude incidence rate of CRC in Jinan was 33.20/105 (ASIRC： 18.28/105)， and the average annual crude mortality rate was 13.58/105 (ASMRC： 6.88/105). Both ASIRC and ASMRC were higher in urban areas than those in rural areas， and higher in male than those in female. ASIRC showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=3.43%， P<0.05)， while ASMRC remained stable (AAPC=1.16%， P=0.10). The increasing amplitudes of ASIRC (AAPC=3.67%) and ASMRC (AAPC=1.79%) in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas (AAPC=2.54% for ASIRC， AAPC=-0.18% for ASMRC). Predictions from the GM(1， 1) model indicated that crude incidence and mortality rates of CRC would continue to rise from 2023 to 2030. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of CRC in Jinan showed a significant upward trend from 2013 to 2022， while mortality remained stable. Targeted prevention and control strategies should be formulated for different regions and populations to reduce the burden of CRC. |
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