| 杨梦诗,亓爱玲,王旭峰,等.2013—2022年山东省济南市肺癌发病与死亡分析及2023—2030年变化趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(12):921-930. |
| 2013—2022年山东省济南市肺癌发病与死亡分析及2023—2030年变化趋势预测 |
| Analysis of Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2030 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-24 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.12.A003 |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 山东 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer incidence mortality trend prediction Shandong |
| 基金项目:2025年山东省健康促进与教育学会科研课题（JKJY2025-9号） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2013—2022年济南市肺癌发病与死亡趋势并预测2023—2030年变化规律。［方法］ 通过山东省肿瘤登记报告系统收集2013—2022年济南市肺癌发病与死亡数据，计算粗发病（死亡）率、分性别/年龄别/城乡发病（死亡）率及中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）；采用Joinpoint回归模型分析趋势并计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）；运用GM（1，1）灰色模型预测2023—2030年肺癌发病与死亡粗率。［结果］2013—2022年，济南市肺癌总体粗发病率为78.02/10万，中标发病率为41.56/10万；粗死亡率为53.66/10万，中标死亡率为27.28/10万。男性发病与死亡率均高于女性，城市发病率高于农村。2013—2022年，粗发病率从66.29/10万升至77.94/10万（AAPC=2.46%，P=0.002）；粗死亡率由2013年的44.63/10万增加到2022年的53.96/10万（AAPC=1.80%，P=0.017）。女性中标发病率上升显著（AAPC=2.86%，P=0.009），总人群和女性中标死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC分别为-1.33%和-1.94%，P分别为0.027和0.010）。年龄别发病与死亡率均呈先升后降趋势，0～35岁处于低水平，35岁后上升，80岁及以上年龄组达峰值后下降。GM（1，1）模型预测2023—2030年发病与死亡率持续上升，2030年总发病率将达100.16/10万（男性109.44/10万、女性94.76/10万），总死亡率将达60.94/10万（男性84.37/10万、女性37.48/10万）。［结论］ 2013—2022年济南市肺癌发病呈上升趋势，死亡率标化后下降，2030年前发病与死亡负担仍将加重；需针对男性、中老年人群及农村地区制定差异化防控策略，降低疾病风险。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022， and predict the changing trends from 2023 to 2030. ［Methods］ Lung cancer incidence and mortality data were collected from 2013 to 2022 in Jinan City through the Shandong Cancer Registry Database. Crude incidence (mortality) rates， incidence (mortality) rates by sex/age group/urban-rural area， and age-standardized incidence (mortality) rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC/ASMRC) were calculated. Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality， calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC)， and GM(1， 1) was applied to predict the crude incidence and mortality rates of lung cancer from 2023 to 2030. ［Results］ From 2013 to 2022， the overall incidence rate of lung cancer in Jinan City was 78.02/105， and the ASIRC was 41.56/105. The corresponding mortality rate was 53.66/105， and the ASMRC was 27.28/105. Incidence and mortality rates were higher among males than females， and urban incidence exceeded rural incidence. From 2013 to 2022， both the crude incidence and crude mortality rates for lung cancer among Jinan residents exhibited an upward trend. The crude incidence rate increased from 66.29/105 in 2013 to 77.94/105 in 2022 (AAPC=2.46%， P=0.002)； while the crude mortality rate increased from 44.63/105 in 2013 to 53.96/105 in 2022 (AAPC=1.80%， P=0.017). ASIRC in female showed an upward trend (AAPC=2.86%， P=0.009)， while the ASMRC for both the total population and female showed a declining trend (AAPC=-1.33% and -1.94%， P=0.027 and 0.010). Rates remained relatively low among those aged 0~35 years old， increased thereafter， peaked in the age group of ≥80 years old， and subsequently decreased. The GM(1， 1) model predicts rising incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer in Jinan from 2023 to 2030. By 2030， the overall lung cancer incidence rate is projected to rise to 100.16/105， with male and female rates increasing to 109.44/105 and 94.76/105， respectively. The overall mortality rate is anticipated to reach 60.94/105， with male and female mortality rates rising to 84.37/105 and 37.48/105，respectively. ［Conclusion］ The incidence of lung cancer in Jinan showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2022， while the standardized mortality rate decreased. The burden of lung cancer incidence and mortality will continue to increase before 2030. Targeted prevention and control strategies should be formulated for male， middle-aged and elderly populations， and rural areas to reduce the disease risk. |
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