| 马 霞,蔡雷琦,颛孙宁宁,等.2013—2022年山东省济南市恶性肿瘤流行特征及2023—2030年变化趋势预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(12):912-920. |
| 2013—2022年山东省济南市恶性肿瘤流行特征及2023—2030年变化趋势预测 |
| Epidemiological Characteristics of Incidence and Mortality of Malignant Tumors in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022 and Prediction from 2023 to 2030 |
| 中文关键词 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.12.A002 |
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| 中文关键词: 恶性肿瘤 发病率 死亡率 趋势 预测 山东 |
| 英文关键词:malignant tumor incidence mortality trend prediction Shandong |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析山东省济南市2013—2022年恶性肿瘤的流行特征及预测2023—2030年发病与死亡趋势。［方法］ 从山东省肿瘤登记报告系统收集2013—2022年济南市恶性肿瘤发病与死亡数据，按性别、年龄、城乡分层计算粗发病（死亡）率、中国人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称世标率）；采用Joinpoint回归模型计算标化率的平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）。运用灰色模型GM（1，1）预测2023—2030年粗发病率与粗死亡率变化趋势。［结果］ 2013—2022 年济南市恶性肿瘤年均粗发病率为358.57/10万（中标率214.15/10万、世标率230.77/10万），年均粗死亡率为189.28/10万（中标率100.00/10万、世标率114.62/10万）。城市地区中标发病率较高，农村地区中标死亡率较高，男性中标发病率和中标死亡率均高于女性。中标发病率呈上升趋势（AAPC=2.42%，P<0.05），中标死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-1.49%，P<0.05）。40岁后发病率快速上升，50岁后死亡率大幅上升；0~59岁年龄段发病率年均增幅2.34%~10.53%（P均<0.01），死亡率年均下降2.88%~4.57%（P均<0.01）。肺癌居发病和死亡顺位首位，甲状腺癌发病顺位上升5位，结直肠癌发病顺位上升1位。GM（1，1）模型预测显示，2023—2030年恶性肿瘤粗发病率和粗死亡率将持续上升，2030年粗发病率预计达495.96/10万，粗死亡率预计达205.64/10万。［结论］ 2013—2022年济南市恶性肿瘤呈现“发病率上升、死亡率下降”特征，发病、死亡及肿瘤谱存在性别、年龄、城乡差异；2023—2030年疾病负担仍将加重，需制定差异化防控策略。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of incidence and mortality of malignant tumors in Jinan City of Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022， and predict the changing trends from 2023 to 2030. ［Methods］ Data on incidence and mortality of malignant tumors in Jinan from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the Shandong Provincial Cancer Registry System. Crude incidence (mortality) rate， age-standardized incidence (mortality) rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC/ASMRC)， and age-standardized incidence (mortality) rate by world standard population (ASIRW/ASMRW) were calculated by sex， age and urban-rural areas. Joinpoint regression model was used to compute average annual percentage change (AAPC) for age-standardized rates. The GM (1， 1) was applied to predict the crude incidence and mortality rates of malignant tumors in Jinan from 2023 to 2030. ［Results］ From 2013 to 2022， the average annual crude incidence rate of malignant tumors in Jinan was 358.57/105 (ASIRC： 214.15/105， ASIRW： 230.77/105)， and the average annual crude mortality rate was 189.28/105 (ASMRC： 100.00/105， ASMRW： 114.62/105). ASIRC was higher in urban areas than that in rural areas， while the ASMRC was higher in rural areas. Both the ASIRC and ASMRC were higher in male than those in female. ASIRC showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=2.42%， P<0.05)， while ASMRC showed a downward trend (AAPC=-1.49%， P<0.05). Incidence rate rose rapidly after 40 years old， and mortality rate increased significantly after 50 years old. The annual increase of incidence rate in the age group of 0~59 years old was 2.34%~10.53% (all P<0.01)， and the annual decrease of mortality rate in the age group of 0~59 years old was 2.88%~4.57% (all P<0.01). Lung cancer ranked first in both incidence and mortality. Thyroid cancer rose by 5 positions in incidence ranking， and colorectal cancer rose by 1 position. Predictions from the GM(1， 1) model indicated that crude incidence and mortality rates of malignant tumors would continue to rise from 2023 to 2030. It is projected that by 2030， the crude incidence rate will reach 495.96/105， and the crude mortality rate will reach 205.64/105. ［Conclusion］ Malignant tumors in Jinan showed a pattern of “rising incidence and declining mortality” from 2013 to 2022， with significant differences in incidence， mortality， and tumor spectrum across sex， age and urban-rural areas. The disease burden will continue to increase from 2023 to 2030， and targeted prevention and control strategies should be formulated. |
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