| 黄秋兰,叶 琳,梁 竹,等.2016—2020年广西南宁市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌流行特征及趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(11):870-876. |
| 2016—2020年广西南宁市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌流行特征及趋势分析 |
| Trends of Incidence and Mortality of Thyroid Cancer in Nanning Cancer Registration Areas from 2016 to 2020 |
| 投稿时间：2024-11-22 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.11.A006 |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 广西 |
| 英文关键词:thyroid cancer incidence mortality trend analysis Guangxi |
| 基金项目:广西卫生健康委员会自筹经费科研课题（Z20210611，Z20201249） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析南宁市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌流行特征及其变化趋势。［方法］ 收集整理2016—2020年期间符合数据质量评价标准的南宁市肿瘤登记处的数据，选取甲状腺癌的发病和死亡数据进行研究。计算甲状腺癌粗发病（死亡）率、中国人口和世界人口标化发病（死亡）率（简称中标率和世标率）、0～74岁累积发病（死亡）率、年龄别发病（死亡）率等指标。通过拟合连接点回归模型，评估发病和死亡的变化趋势。［结果］ 2016—2020年南宁市肿瘤登记地区累计报告2 291例新发甲状腺癌病例，粗发病率、中标发病率和世标发病率分别为7.70/10万、7.23/10万和6.22/10万，0～74岁累积发病率为0.59%。女性发病率高于男性，城市地区发病率高于农村地区。从20岁起甲状腺癌的发病率迅速上升，在50～54岁年龄组达到峰值后逐渐回落，其中女性在30～59岁年龄段保持较高的发病水平，且均高于男性。同期，甲状腺癌死亡病例数为121例，粗死亡率、中标死亡率和世标死亡率分别为0.41/10万、0.32/10万和0.31/10万，0～74岁累积死亡率为0.03%。女性死亡率高于男性。从40岁起甲状腺癌年龄别死亡率呈现波浪式上升的走势，在75～79岁年龄组达到峰值。2016—2020年南宁市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌粗发病率（AAPC=21.11%，t=3.25，P<0.05）和中标发病率（AAPC=22.02%，t=3.39，P<0.05）均呈上升趋势，男性粗发病率（AAPC=19.45%，t=4.35，P<0.05）和中标发病率（AAPC=19.81%，t=5.74，P<0.05）均呈上升趋势，城市地区粗发病率（AAPC=30.62%，t=7.13，P<0.05）和中标发病率（AAPC=32.38%，t=7.25，P<0.05）均呈上升趋势；城市地区甲状腺癌粗死亡率（AAPC=43.06%，t=7.73，P<0.05）和中标死亡率（AAPC=47.63%，t=8.60，P<0.05）均呈上升趋势。［结论］ 2016—2020年南宁市肿瘤登记地区甲状腺癌的发病呈现上升趋势，城市地区是重点防控区域，育龄妇女和更年期妇女是高危人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the trends of incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nanning City from 2016 to 2020. ［Methods］ The incidence and mortality data of thyroid cancer from 2016 to 2020 were collected from the Nanning cancer registries， and the the quality of data was assessed. The crude incidence/mortality rates， the age-standar-dized incidence/mortality rates by Chinese standard population (ASIRC， ASMRC) and world standard population (ASIRW， ASMRW)， the cumulative incidence/mortality rates (0~74 years old)， and the age-specific incidence/mortality rates were calculated. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the trends of incidence and mortality， expressed as average annual percentage change (AAPC). ［Results］ From 2016 to 2020， a total of 2 291 new cases of thyroid cancer were reported in Nanning cancer registries. The crude incidence rate was 7.70/105 with the ASIRC of 7.23/105 and ASIRW of 6.22/105， the cumulative incidence rate was 0.59%. The incidence was higher in female than that in male， and higher in urban areas than that in rural areas. The incidence rate of thyroid cancer began to rise sharply from the 20 years old and reached peak in the age group of 50~54 years old. The incidence rate in female remained at a high level in the age group of 30~59 years old， which was higher than that in male. A total of 121 deaths of thyroid cancer were reported with a crude mortality rate of 0.41/105， ASMRC of 0.32/105， ASMRW of 0.31/105 and cumulative mortality rate of 0.03%. The mortality rate was higher in female than that in male. The age-specific mortality rate for thyroid cancer showed a fluctuant upward trend after the 40 years old and peaked in the age group of 75~79 years old. The crude incidence rate and ASIRC showed an upward trend in whole population (AAPC=21.11%， t=3.25， P<0.05； AAPC=22.02%， t=3.39， P<0.05) ， in male (AAPC=19.45%， t=4.35， P<0.05； AAPC=19.81%， t=5.74， P<0.05) and urban areas(AAPC=30.62%， t=7.13， P<0.05； AAPC=32.38%， t=7.25， P<0.05) . The crude mortality rate and ASMRC in urban areas (AAPC=43.06%， t=7.73， P<0.05； AAPC=47.63%， t=8.60， P<0.05) also showed an increasing trend. ［Conclusion］ The crude incidence rate and ASIRC of thyroid cancer in cancer registration areas of Nanning City showed an overall upward trend from 2016 to 2020， except in rural areas； while the rising trends of the crude mortality rate and ASMRC were only observed in urban areas. |
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