| 付祥锐,李 文,刘玉荣,等.1990—2021年中国不同性别甲状腺癌发病趋势分析及预测[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(10):804-812. |
| 1990—2021年中国不同性别甲状腺癌发病趋势分析及预测 |
| Trend Analysis and Future Forecast of Thyroid Cancer Incidence by Sex in China from 1990 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2024-10-29 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.10.A007 |
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| 中文关键词: 甲状腺癌 发病率 性别差异 趋势分析 预测 中国 |
| 英文关键词:thyroid cancer incidence gender difference trend analysis forecasting China |
| 基金项目: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析1990—2021年甲状腺癌不同性别的发病趋势变化，并预测2022—2030年发病情况。［方法］ 收集2021年全球疾病负担研究（GBD 2021）中1990—2021年中国居民甲状腺癌发病相关数据，利用Joinpoint联结点回归模型分析甲状腺癌发病趋势，基于1990—2021年甲状腺癌发病数据，构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022—2030年甲状腺癌发病情况。［结果］ 1990—2021年，中国甲状腺癌标化发病率呈现波动上升趋势，2021年中国甲状腺癌标化发病率为2.47/10万，略低于同年全球平均水平（2.91/10万）。2021年，甲状腺癌发病率在男女性之间存在显著差异，女性发病率高于男性。其中，女性新发病例为27 915例，粗发病率为4.02/10万，标化发病率为2.87/10万；男性新发病例为20 189例，粗发病率为2.77/10万，标化发病率为2.11/10万。1990—2021年，中国男性甲状腺癌新发病例、粗发病率、标化发病率增幅均高于女性。男性和女性甲状腺癌标化发病率均呈上升趋势，而女性的年均百分比变化低于男性。甲状腺癌年龄别发病率存在着明显的性别差异。2021年，中国75岁以下人群中女性发病率较男性更高，而75岁及以上的人群，男性发病率高于女性。1990—2021年，中国45~59岁和75岁及以上男性人群发病率明显上升；而50~74岁女性的发病率明显上升。预测结果显示，2030年总体、男性、女性甲状腺癌的标化发病率分别增长至2.90/10万、2.44/10万、3.26/10万。［结论］ 中国甲状腺癌发病率呈上升趋势，其中女性发病率高于男性，但男性发病率增幅超过女性，发病率差距在缩小，且男性发病高峰多在高龄人群。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract： ［Purpose］ To analyze the changes in the incidence trend of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2021， and to predict the future incidence from 2022 to 2030. ［Methods］ We collected data related to the incidence of thyroid cancer among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 in the Global Burden of Disease 2021(GBD 2021) study， analyzed the trend of thyroid cancer incidence using the Joinpoint regression model， and constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the future incidence of thyroid cancer during the years of 2022—2030， based on the incidence data during the years of 1990—2021. ［Results］ From 1990 to 2021， the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer in China showed a fluctuating upward trend， and the ASIR of thyroid cancer in China in 2021 was 2.47/105， slightly lower than the global average (2.91/105) in the same year. In 2021， there were significant differences in new cases and incidence rate of thyroid cancer between men and women， with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men. Among them， the number of new cases in women was 27 915， the crude incidence rate was 4.02/105， and the ASIR was 2.87/105； in men， the number of new cases was 20 189， the crude incidence rate was 2.77/105， and the ASIR was 2.11/105. Between 1990 and 2021， the increase in the number of new cases， the crude incidence rate， and the ASIR of men in China was much larger than that of women. The ASIR of thyroid cancer in both male and female showed an increasing trend， while the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in female was lower than that in male. There were significant gender differences in the age-specific incidence rates of thyroid cancer. In 2021， the incidence rate of women was higher than that of men in the Chinese population <75 years old， whereas the incidence rate of men was higher than that of women in the population ≥75 years old. From 1990 to 2021， the incidence rates of the Chinese male population aged 45~59 years old and ≥75 years old increased significantly； and the incidence rate of the Chinese female popu-lation aged 50~74 years old increased significantly. Projections showed that the ASIR of overall， male and female standardized incidence rates in 2030 increased to 2.90/105， 2.44/105 and 3.26/105 respectively. ［Conclusion］ The incidence rate of thyroid cancer in China is on the rise， with the incidence rate of women being higher than that of men， but the incidence rate of men has increased more than that of women， and the gap between the incidence rates is narrowing， and the peak age of incidence of men is mostly in the senior age group. |
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