| 程宗雪,丁雨蒙,李辉章,等.2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病与死亡特征及2000—2021年变化趋势分析[J].中国肿瘤,2025,34(10):747-755. |
| 2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病与死亡特征及2000—2021年变化趋势分析 |
| Incidence and Mortality of Lung Cancer in Zhejiang Cancer Registration Areas in 2021 and Trends from 2000 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-05-29 |
| DOI：10.11735/j.issn.1004-0242.2025.10.A001 |
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| 中文关键词: 肺癌 发病率 死亡率 趋势分析 浙江 |
| 英文关键词:lung cancer incidence mortality trend analysis Zhejiang |
| 基金项目:健康浙江百万人群队列（K纵20230085）；国家自然科学基金（82273700） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 摘 要：［目的］ 分析2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病与死亡特征以及2000—2021年的变化趋势。［方法］ 基于2000—2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌发病和死亡数据，通过计算粗率、中国人口标化率（简称中标率）、世界人口标化率（简称世标率）、构成比等指标描述2021年肺癌的流行特征。使用Joinpoint回归分析肺癌发病和死亡的时间变化趋势，计算年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）和平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及其95%置信区间。［结果］ 2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌粗发病率为128.58/10万，中标率为68.74/10万，在所有恶性肿瘤发病中占比为24.22%；粗死亡率为51.55/10万，中标率为21.58/10万，在所有恶性肿瘤死亡中占比为27.98%。2000—2021年浙江省肿瘤登记地区肺癌粗发病率（AAPC=5.73%，P<0.001）及中标发病率（AAPC=4.14%，P<0.001）均呈上升趋势。粗死亡率（AAPC=1.76%，P<0.001）呈缓慢上升趋势，而中标死亡率（AAPC=-0.40%，P=0.035）呈缓慢下降趋势。女性发病率上升幅度显著高于男性，而死亡率两性间差异不大。城乡地区发病率增长趋势相近；农村粗死亡率增长趋势显著快于城市地区，死亡标化率下降趋势仅在城市地区有统计学意义。不同年龄组肺癌发病率均呈上升趋势；死亡率仅在中青年组（<65岁）呈下降趋势。15~44岁人群发病率增长和死亡率下降速度均快于45岁及以上。［结论］ 2000—2021年浙江省肺癌发病显著上升，疾病发病负担加重；尽管人口老龄化形式严峻，但通过有效的防控措施，肺癌标化死亡率实现稳步下降。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Abstract：［Purpose］ To analyze the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in Zhejiang cancer regi-stration areas in 2021 and trends from 2000 to 2021. ［Methods］ Using data from Zhejiang cancer registration areas from 2000 to 2021， the crude rate， age-standardized rate by Chinese standard population (ASRC) and the world standard population (ASRW)， and composition ratio were calculated to describe the incidence and mortality in 2021. Joinpoint regression was employed to analyze temporal trends over the 22 years， calculating the annual percentage change (APC)， average annual percentage change (AAPC)， and their 95% confidence intervals(CI). ［Results］ The crude incidence rate of lung cancer in 2021 was 128.58/105， with an ASRC of 68.74/105， accounting for 24.22% of all cancers； the crude mortality rate was 51.55/105， with an ASRC of 21.58/105， constituting 27.98% of all cancer deaths. Both crude incidence rate (AAPC=5.73%， P＜0.001) and ASIRC (AAPC=4.14%， P＜0.001) of lung cancer showed significant increasing trends from 2000 to 2021. The crude mortality rate increased slowly(AAPC=1.76%， P＜0.001)， while the ASMRC(AAPC= -0.40%， P=0.035) exhibited a modest decline. The increase in incidence was more pronounced in females than males， though no statistically significant difference was observed in mortality trends. The incidence rates in urban and rural areas showed similar growth trends； the crude mortality rate in rural areas was growing significantly faster than that in urban areas， and the decline in the ASRC was only statistically significant in urban areas. The incidence rate was increasing in all age groups. The mortality rate was declining among younger people (<65 years old). The age group of 15~44 years old demonstrated a greater increase in incidence and a sharper decline in mortality than those aged 45 years old and above. ［Conclusion］ From 2000 to 2021， Zhejiang Province experienced a marked rise in lung cancer incidence with escalating disease burden. Despite severe population aging， ASRC of mortality declined steadily， reflecting effective prevention and control measures. |
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